Not to mention, you should really be aware at how blatantly you're falling into the most classic "symptom" of confirmation bias; discrediting a source when it doesn't suit your narrative, but leaning on it when it does. That source being Chinese science, in your case.

Quote from: astfgyl on December 18, 2020, 09:32:58 AM
. And there we were, 2 weeks to flatten the curve 9 months ago to keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed which they never did.


Just RE this bit, because I see it coming up all over the place, does it not make sense that the hospitals are not being overrun BECAUSE there's been a massive effort to reduce transmission? Like, that was the scenario to be avoided, and no one wanted to see it happen, it wasn't a case of "this is what's going to happen", but "this is likely to happen if we carry on business as usual"?

I dunno, it makes sense to me and it's not a gamble anyone in government would want to be seen taking. I'm not seeing the logic at all behind this tbh, and to be clear I'm not singling you out on this, it's just a talking point I've seen come up a lot over the course of the year.

We've all been led down the garden path by China, Big Pharma and Big Tech. On the one hand you have the likes of me, suspicious of everything and on the other the rest of ye here with the "it's all above board and the world is a good honest place, especially when there is astronomical sums of money involved". Still to this day I have yet to see a better assessment of the situation than Wolfgang Wodarg back in March.

The likelihood is that the answer lies somewhere in between, ie that there really is a bad dose going and the rampant opportunism is feeding into people's fears for one and feeding on their good nature for another. Just imagine for a moment that the only cases were those that presented with clinical symptoms, and then confirmed via testing. Yes we would be still somewhat in a position of concern and caution indeed and last spring would still stand out, but no way would we be in this shit right now, hiding under the proverbial rock waiting for the vaccine cavalry to give us a few of our basic rights back. During the epidemic here, there were 155 cases in ICU and according to Varadkar, we weren't overwhelmed, so having 30 today is not the same level of concern whatsoever but is being treated as if it is in the national media. And don't worry I don't feel singled out and I'm also the fella constantly pushing the opposing narrative to the mainstream so I can expect to be called out and schooled on a regular basis!

Good Irish data here: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing. Nothing major going on here, although looking at last spring I can understand why there were strict measures taken and if it was my own decision I would have locked down twice as hard as our government did at the time and closed the borders entirely but that was then and this is now and the situation has changed an awful lot since. Let's not forget either that the vaccine is the only get out of jail free card available to the government so it is very much in their best interests to keep the fear going and the masks and the distancing so it can be said that was what did the trick. Imagine if it was simply an initial epidemic and has now become an endemic seasonal respiratory virus, sure that would be terrible news for both governments and pharma companies as well as the likes of Google and Amazon and don't forget the research and testing labs and all the extremely well funded studies along with mask manufacturers, perspex companies etc. The list goes on of who will lose out if we simply get on with living or even go Great Barrington and shield the vulnerable while life goes on for the rest.

Regarding the Chinese science, of course they would have initially estimated higher due to the limited amount of testing and that testing being carried out on mostly symptomatic cases, so I can say both that their science is technically correct as well as saying that the worldwide social media push coming from there contributed to everybody panicking in a big way. And we all suffer from confirmation bias in one way or another. I'll see your Nature article and raise you this https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w regarding asymptomatic transmission. Pre-symptomatic? Maybe, but it all just keeps the whole shitshow going. I'd be fairly confident that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic would be about as dangerous as each other if those who developed symptoms were to isolate and let others get on with life. How many asymptomatic cases of rhinovirus or influenza would we find if we went at it in this fashion? We would simply have to shut the world down for good for fear some people would get sick and die. And while we all huddle in, half the world is driven into starvation even worse than before. It is not callous to say we can't stop death and that people should be trusted to decide their own level of risk in any given situation.


QuoteOk so China's own mass testing of 10 million people showed that asymptomatic transmission wasn't a thing

That Nature study, wisely, makes no such claim. Had it been a study of 10 million contact cases from asymptomatic positives, then they could have advanced such a claim. But that's not what it was at all. There were 300 asymptomatic cases out of 10 million tested at the end of a stricter lockdown than anywhere in Europe implemented, and none of the contacts (of which there would have been very, very few per individual, due to lockdown) of those 300 were positive. So, does asymptomatic transmission exist? Impossible to say based on that study, since notably it wasn't even designed with that in mind.

No it wasn't designed with that in mind but as a secondary outcome it was surely considered and even if it wasn't considered it's there in the results all the same. Just a lucky break for the world then that it showed no cases of asymptomatic transmission whatsoever in a sample size of 10 million in a city which it had been circulating for months prior to lockdown. I wonder what the Chinese themselves made of those results and if it is informing their policy whatsoever. Brother in law lives there and he says it's business as usual in Shenzhen. I concede that they are very strict on quarantining arrivals though..

It showed no apparent asymptomatic transmission from the remaining 300 asymptomatic positives that were remaining at the end of a draconian lockdown. It didn't, and couldn't, show that no asymptomatic transmission had occurred at any prior time point.

A nice comparative piece here about the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic from a historian at Swansea University:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/a-christmas-pandemic-like-no-other-they-thought-that-in-1918-influenza-covid

Here lads, go and smoke a joint will yiz.....

Did that. Well a bong but still..

Did you know that none other than me oul pal Fauci wrote a paper outlining how bacterial pneumonia from mask wearing and unsanitary conditions likely caused the more deadly second wave of the 1918 pandemic?

Did you also know that the website "The Great Reset dot com"  was first registered in 2016 with the title "The New Normal dot com"?

Too many happy coincidences in all of this, suiting too many agendas for my liking. I just can't and don't trust it all.

Bong? You should be lying on your back staring at all the stars on your ceiling brudder.....

#2365 December 18, 2020, 11:57:29 PM Last Edit: December 18, 2020, 11:59:03 PM by Black Shepherd Carnage
Quote from: astfgyl on December 18, 2020, 11:48:00 PM
Did you know that none other than me oul pal Fauci wrote a paper outlining how bacterial pneumonia from mask wearing and unsanitary conditions likely caused the more deadly second wave of the 1918 pandemic?

An important part of that claim was quickly and easily debunked; the 2008 paper in question doesn't actually mention masks at all. Might want to review any other information you got from the sources which threw that one at you.

Edit: Here's the full text in open access, so you can do a Ctrl+F for yourself: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2599911/

Quote from: Black Shepherd Carnage on December 18, 2020, 11:57:29 PM
Quote from: astfgyl on December 18, 2020, 11:48:00 PM
Did you know that none other than me oul pal Fauci wrote a paper outlining how bacterial pneumonia from mask wearing and unsanitary conditions likely caused the more deadly second wave of the 1918 pandemic?

An important part of that claim was quickly and easily debunked; the 2008 paper in question doesn't actually mention masks at all. Might want to review any other information you got from the sources which threw that one at you.

Edit: Here's the full text in open access, so you can do a Ctrl+F for yourself: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2599911/

Touché!!!

I'd try anything to debunk the masks..  :'(

#2367 December 19, 2020, 08:12:41 AM Last Edit: December 19, 2020, 08:14:36 AM by Trev
Quote from: astfgyl on December 18, 2020, 11:48:00 PM

Did you also know that the website "The Great Reset dot com"  was first registered in 2016 with the title "The New Normal dot com"?

A quick domain check shows it was first registered in 2009, and The New Normal was in 2004. Not sure where you're getting your info but it might be worth putting those sources under a similar scrutiny

Quote from: Trev on December 19, 2020, 08:12:41 AM
Quote from: astfgyl on December 18, 2020, 11:48:00 PM

Did you also know that the website "The Great Reset dot com"  was first registered in 2016 with the title "The New Normal dot com"?

A quick domain check shows it was first registered in 2009, and The New Normal was in 2004. Not sure where you're getting your info but it might be worth putting those sources under a similar scrutiny
God forbid 😂

The man with the unpronounceable name is getting it fierce tight the last few days!

Normally I'd accuse Chris of OD'ing on the auld soma he's so fond of, but he's on the money on this thread.

Pity about all the other threads, but sure lookit :)