Coronavirus

The Butcher · 2870 · 116652

The Butcher

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on: February 13, 2020, 12:23:10 AM
Over hyped virus or will it become the pandemic that will kickstart this decade off with a full blown recession coupled with death/fear? Nearly 15,000 new cases from a region in China confirmed just now as I type.

I always was of the opinion that we are closer to a new recession than we were to the one in 2008. I reckon this coronavirus will be the tipping point to break the global economy. I'm hoping the jump in numbers might spur some real preventative action. Been keeping an eye on the figures here (updated nightly) ->

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

At the moment it seems more contagious than SARS but less deadly. The thing that worries me most is the fact you can get pneumonia from it....which has the potential of permanently damaging your lungs/leaving you with complications later in life.  Reports show it can take up to (and more) 14 days before symptoms show. Some people it takes 2 to 3 tests for it to show up as positive.

China are buckling under the pressure and for their economy are trying to reopen companies. Trade/tourism over health/contagion.

What do you reckon? It will go the way of SARS and be contained? We are in for an interesting year ahead.


Juggz

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Reply #1 on: February 13, 2020, 06:07:49 AM
It appears to be a nasty variation of the flu, going on what I have read. If you have respiratory or inmuno-problems, we will honour your memory. If you’re fit and strong, a bumpy ride is ahead but recovery follows.

One thing is for sure, if something genuinely lethal develops we will all be dead in no time at all. The response of The Man has been lamentable at best. This was not even close to being contained. Realistically, though, can something like this ever be properly contained?


Trev

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Reply #2 on: February 13, 2020, 07:47:00 AM
One thing is for sure, if something genuinely lethal develops we will all be dead in no time at all. The response of The Man has been lamentable at best. This was not even close to being contained. Realistically, though, can something like this ever be properly contained?

Pretty much, the Spanish flu in 1918 killed something like 80 million people? And that was before people could just hop on a flight to the other side of the world. I reckon if a similarly deadly strain came along the health systems worldwide would just be completely overwhelmed


Wiseblood

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Reply #3 on: February 13, 2020, 07:55:21 AM
The Jim Corr in me suspects it's possibly man made and was accidentally discharged. Whatever it is, the way it's been dealt with will do nothing to curb a global spread.


Ducky

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Reply #4 on: February 13, 2020, 12:03:49 PM
It appears to be a nasty variation of the flu, going on what I have read. If you have respiratory or inmuno-problems, we will honour your memory. If you’re fit and strong, a bumpy ride is ahead but recovery follows.

One thing is for sure, if something genuinely lethal develops we will all be dead in no time at all. The response of The Man has been lamentable at best. This was not even close to being contained. Realistically, though, can something like this ever be properly contained?

Huzzah, immuno-compromised here. I'll donate my Chic records to the forum.


livingabortion

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Reply #5 on: February 15, 2020, 03:13:01 AM
It's been fucking stupid how it's been handled. Wuhan should have been completely quarantined, if you're in there, sorry, but no getting out.  There was English there, allowed back to England and now there's several cases of it there. If you're allowing people to travel from a highly infected area there's a high chance that they could bring infection with them.
I know there is a lot of inaccurate reports of the number of infected and dead, but by many reports it is spreading, people in Ireland have been tested for it, and sadly another effect of it it is causing racism against Chinese people.


There has been a few conspiracy theories about it too. The 20th year of each century:

1720 – The Bubonic Plague kills around 100 thousand people

1820 – A Cholera outbreak again kills almost 100 thousand people

1920 – Spanish Flu kills around 100 million people across the world

2020 – The Corona Virus
Deep Down Six Feet, Is Where I Like To Eat


The Butcher

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Reply #6 on: February 27, 2020, 10:56:33 AM
Only a matter of time until we get a case confirmed, if not this week then the next. I wouldn't put it past FF & FG to form a "grand coalition" with the Greens in the "national interest" citing the coronavirus outbreak as an emergency with the upcoming health & economic fallout...tying in the brexit trade talks as major concerns to having a "functional and stable" government. It's inevitable in my eyes that there will be a recession from this.

The concerns are -
People seem to be getting reinfected (or a relapse), there was cases in China but not reliable, now we have a case in Japan ->
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-being-reinfected-with-covid-19-11944295

This means we should be doing everything possible to prevent the worse case scenario, this virus becoming part of the cold and flu season.

"Coronavirus far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola" ->
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say

Top 3 valuable resources (no nonsense, no speculation shite) on the Coronavirus outbreak for me are ->

For regular updates ->
https://twitter.com/BNODesk

For numbers / map ->
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

Dr John Campbells Youtube page ->
https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching


DeletedUsermNqGIiIuGy

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Reply #7 on: February 27, 2020, 01:16:10 PM
I've not bothered to get to in to everything going on with it but it seems it's getting spread more so by pure stupidity. People traveling to places that have reported outbreaks/incidents or people living in these places travelling in the same manner.

The level of stupidity we show as a race sometimes is immense. 


Ducky

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Reply #8 on: February 27, 2020, 09:19:03 PM
Looks like a confirmed case in Norn Iron, someone returning from a trip to Italy. The person returned home via Dublin too.

Looks like Italy is gonna be a bit of a hotbed as the first case in Denmark was also confirmed today, the person was also on holiday in Italy.


Black Shepherd Carnage

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Reply #9 on: February 28, 2020, 04:13:55 PM


The Butcher

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Reply #10 on: March 01, 2020, 07:23:38 PM
Coronavirus Cases:
88,339

Deaths:
3,001

Recovered:
42,728

Only a matter of time until we get a case confirmed, if not this week then the next.

And we got it, one up North and one down south. It's absurd to think that the HSE/dept of health can keep the school/location a secret in the age of social media. Limiting information only serves to build up rumours and speculation (I saw 3 different locations about the "man from the east" over the weekend), it was led to more distrust and a lack of confidence in the officials handling the outbreak. What dopes.

Some sober analysis here:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I've been doing a good lot of reading on the research coming out of Asia (mainly China) on the damage the virus does, now it's limited on the people that recover but some reporting kidney/testes damage (male infertility - ouch) but the main damage is respiratory, due to pneumonia, scarring left on the lungs. Now anyone that has been damage from pneumonia know how life changing that kind of thing can be.

We've had 3 doctors come out last week saying we have zero capacity to deal with an outbreak. There are no available slots in our ICUs at present and we know the story with the trolley situation, we are going to find out by April how our system can handle it.

I'm not liking the flu comparison bandied about the place. On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. So far the estimate for this is somewhere between 1-2% (Dr John Campbell says this varies depending on the state of a countries healthcare system). But put that into age brackets and it's basically a concern for anyone over 50 or anyone with pre-existing conditions (immunocompromised / respiratory etc).
Dr Campbell puts the infection rate of the flu at 1.4-1.5 while he puts the coronavirus based on the research so far to about 2.6 (Every 1 person infects 2.6 people) which is much higher.

He also mentions in one of his latest youtube videos that we are in the first wave. An interesting and subtle sentence but after watching a BBC documentary on the Spanish flu, they talked about waves, the first wave being the bird to human transmission that seem to devastate older people and it was only when the second wave of human to human transmission came about that it started to kill off younger healthier people. Something to keep an eye on for the months ahead as this is not going anyway any time soon.

The fact we have free movement of travel and high density living means we were never going to realistically contain this virus. China just bought the rest of the world time, all we can do now is slow the spread and not let it overwhelm the health sector. Next month is going to be interesting. I do hope it goes the way of SARS and mutates down a less infectious path and dies out within 8 months like SARS did. Let's wait and see.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 07:33:47 PM by The Butcher »


The Butcher

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Reply #11 on: March 01, 2020, 07:24:20 PM
https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640?s=19

A sobering read on the situation in Iran.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 07:35:16 PM by The Butcher »


The Butcher

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Reply #12 on: March 01, 2020, 07:28:12 PM
---duplicate post


kiehozero

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Reply #13 on: March 01, 2020, 08:09:25 PM
Think it's almost certain that China are understating the numbers affected and/or dead. Seen a few people saying this could be their Chernobyl in terms of snapping public fear and bringing criticism out in to the open, although I'm not sure I'd fancy anyone's chances given what is happening with the Uighur population there.


DeletedUsermNqGIiIuGy

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Reply #14 on: March 01, 2020, 10:30:53 PM
Seen a video posted of some of the goings on over.. if its true its really grim.