Coronavirus

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Ok let's have a go. The overall excess mortality taken in the context of the last 30 years or so is not so significant as to warrant the ridiculous response that we are all experiencing. So if we didn't have a name for this, no one would notice beyond saying it was a bad flu season.

Except that it didn't happen during flu season, making it very "noticeable", name or no name.

Here is a euromomo graph which supports what I was trying to say:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eiw3wMZXkAMb9pd?format=jpg&name=medium

"Note the very low death rate preceding COVID"
No, don't! Because excess mortality is based on a five year average for comparable periods of the year, and not on what happened just before, so this graph debunks nothing about the excess mortality discourse; to do that, it would have to show us what's been happening over five years.

Bottom line: we would have noticed. Of course we would have fucking noticed! Even in your own graph, look at that spike! How would that, outside of normal flu season, not have been noticed? What is this mad conclusion? I'm totally onboard for loosening restrictions across Europe now, for various reasons, but this "we wouldn't have changed our lives at all except for some pesky scientists in Wuhan isolating and naming a new virus" is paranoid lunacy.

[astfgyl]

Don't mind the note on the graph, that was just the picture I could get the quickest of it. It isn't even the low deaths before the spike that I am looking at. It shows excess mortality of 40,000 for a population of 360 million, does it not? I think that wouldn't be as noticeable as the hundreds of thousands of reported covid deaths, a large number of which are diagnosed by the test and nothing else, and also a large number which were never even tested. I wouldn't call that paranoid lunacy at all, and I honestly think without the hype fuck all would have changed. (Edit: the deaths that fit the bill by symptoms would have been classed as ILI and would be far lower than what we see reported) Have you seen the memo to the nursing homes regarding the declaration of Covid deaths in March and April? It explains a lot about what the craic is here.

I don't even think there is a shred of evidence for this originating in China but the world is running with the idea that it did.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Don't mind the note on the graph, that was just the picture I could get the quickest of it.

I have to mind it, because it's a strong indication that your whole logic is coming from seriously flawed sources who are coming at statistics with a folk knowledge of comparing numbers.

It shows excess mortality of 40,000 for a population of 360 million, does it not?

That is what the person who didn't fully know what they were looking at wrote on it. A graph like that, which is NOT raw numbers, is a response to a question. If you don't know what that question was, you can't know whether or not it answers it. What it shows is that there was a spike of 80,000 excess deaths across a short period of time when, compared to the same period averaged over the previous five years, there should be no such excess. So, regardless of cause, yes, it would have been very noticeable...in much the same way that heavier than usual death tolls are noticed even WITHIN season and are generally attributed to flu...many of whom die "with" flu, returning once again to that banal thing certain people think is such a revelation.

[astfgyl]

I recall way back in this thread that you said that the real measure of the damage done by Covid 19 would be in the overall excess mortality. Well there it is. (Actually I should have made more of the "~" in front of the quoted numbers). Including the drop off in all cause mortality since that spike, it will turn out to be a close to normal year.

And speaking of flawed sources, I don't base my own conclusions on a single source. I look to see what else there is after the initial thing puts me on to it. I smelled a rat with all of this very early on, and then thought maybe not for a good while but recently have come back around to the idea that it has been seriously overblown, and not from any one single source. Right this minute, I'm having my ideas backed up by Michael Levitt, Martin Kulldorff and Jay Bhattacharya.

The real metrics, which should be sick people and deaths all point to it simply running its' course.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

You can't jump parallel between arguments. Your argument that COVID19 wouldn't have been noticed if we hadn't had a test for it is fatally flawed, based - among other things - on an excess mortality spike for the specific period of end March/beginning April. That's one argument.

Now you're saying that if, at the end of 2020, we compare total mortality for the whole year to the average annual mortality for the last five years (i.e. when we calculate 2020's sum excess mortality compared to the previous five years), that it will be very low, or that there won't be any excess at all. This is a different argument, which has nothing to do with whether or not we would have detected a spike at a different scale. There has been noticeable excess vibration in my apartment since my kid started walking, but I don't think it's registering for whoever's monitoring the Richter meter in the south west of France.
Personally, since it's only September, I won't be drawing any conclusions on that particular argument at all.

And now, finally, you say that you think the metrics point in the direction of the virus running its course, by which I guess you mean population immunity rising and vulnerable people taking care, although it's hard to tell what's the virus running its course and what's intervention because everywhere - yes, including Sweden - has some measures in place. But in any case, I do agree that there has been an evolution in how the virus is spreading, who is catching it, and so on, and that we should review policy on a local level in light of this. But, again, this too is independent of either of the above arguments.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Dipping into the current stats there, besides the record breaking case rates in France, on a more concrete level I see that the number of people in ICU here has tripled to over 1,000 in the last couple of weeks. I don't see any reason for Ireland to model its response based on highly populated places with enormous, sprawling urban agglomerates like France or Spain though. Just doesn't make sense, unless it's simply an extension of FF/FG always wanting to be in step with "Europe".

[astfgyl]

According to the General Register's Office which records all deaths in Ireland:

"During April 2020, there were 2,689 deaths registered in Ireland. During April 2019, there were 2,599 deaths registered. During April 2018, there were 2,940 deaths registered."

What do you make of that? I did a count of rip.ie deaths a while back which went against the figures I just quoted there so I'm contradicting my own research there but there are the numbers.

Regarding the ICU thing, I would have to know what the normal level of admissions in France is to have any opinion on that. I recently tried finding them for Ireland with no success. In fact, I'm finding those numbers of registered deaths for April 2018 and 2019 very elusive beyond a Gript result at the top of the google search. Must verify further.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

The number of COVID positive people in ICU, I mean. It has tripled in the last two weeks. You don't need to know anything else to read that as an increase in the number of ICU admissions. I don't know what the total ICU occupancy is at the moment; that would be very difficult to find. But for a couple of months there, there were around 100 COVID positive cases, then it increased - what seemed slightly - to about 300 when cases began to increase, and now - having not looked at it for a week or so - it's gone up to over 1,000.

[astfgyl]

That is interesting. I was indeed taking it as the number of overall ICU admissions. Looking at the worldometers page for France here and the deaths don't seem to be increasing in any meaningful way though the cases are skyrocketing. It also says of the number of active cases that 0% are critical and 100% in mild condition, although I feel a bit skeptical about where they are getting that from.

Edit: Throwing this in here while we are talking about France. I think almost anyone will be able to find some common ground with this chap.

https://youtu.be/AsTv6iGPJHs

[astfgyl]

Fauci on the Late Late tonight. The propaganda machine in full swing. I wonder when they will invite Heneghan on?

In the meantime:

FL Gov says all restaurants and bars can fully open-- 100% capacity-- with no limitations from the state.

We are about to find out.

Funny, the video I watched for 2 hours this evening was him speaking to 3 experts. This is going to be really really interesting.

[astfgyl]

Bit of reading to disagree with here: https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/october-2020/democracy-muzzled/

I thought Jedward's performance on the Late Late last night was very reassuring and I am now ready to hold firm and stay in my house until a vaccine comes. Fauci also explained to me that if I do take the vaccine I can have life back to something like normal. Not normal but just a little more freedom as long as I take the vaccine. What a salesman. An awful pity the arse is after falling out of the thing he is trying to sell us protection from.

Reminds me of that Stalin story doing the rounds.. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/stalin-chicken-feathers/
Snopes says "Legend". Governments worldwide agree!

Next week on the Late Late, in the interest of balance it is to be Dr Marcus De Brun, Carl Heneghan, Sunetra Gupta, Anders Tegnell and Ron DeSantis. Should be fantastic. There will also be a pro-Trump rally to finish off instead of the usual musical number. I knew RTE had integrity.

[Pedrito]

I have to say astfgyl that watching your conversion from quite moderate to your current stance is very interesting. I'm neither saying good nor bad, it's kind of reassuring that people aren't all just swallowing the same oul shit that is handed to them everyday though. That said, I'm still quite on the fence myself in many ways. I get the feeling it's all bullshit but I err on the side of caution in general. That's not to I'm not sick to my back teeth with it all. A good read everyday in order to remind myself that I'm right to be sceptical about all this nonsense.

[astfgyl]

Cheers Pedro, I often think I'm the only one who can see we have all had the wool pulled over our eyes lately. The media bias on this is only matched by the dedication to BLM and trying to get rid of Trump. The whole thing feels orchestrated at times. I'm not even in the grand conspiracy camp about it all, I just feel things have gone too far and that governments are refusing to row back on it in the face of mounting evidence that they bought the Chinese toilet roll and the media and social media are turning the screw on dissent and that is not good for anyone.

I just fucking cracked a few weeks back once I really saw how the response is far worse than the virus having had nagging doubts since the beginning. I think what has been done to the old folks in terms of trying to inflict constant terror on them is a crime against humanity at this stage. Even they should be told that they have roughly a 95% chance of surviving at any age but no they are terrorized by the national news instead. It's not right.

[astfgyl]

Anyone seen any of the footage from the lockdown protests in London? Fully peaceful protest, cops beating the shit out of dissenters? It's especially disturbing when taken in the context of how the BLM protests were treated there given the very same risk of Covid was present. They fucked a doctor into the paddywagon there and all for speaking out about it. Same doctor was sitting beside Robert F. Kennedy at a news conference in Germany the other day. A Very Dangerous Man.

I bet those cops think they are doing that to save the old people. That is the saddest thing of all. How far is this going to go in the attempt to defeat a fucking virus!? With a survival rate on a par with or maybe even higher than the flu... Come on ta fuck and cop on, cops... and everyone else.

[Caomhaoin]

Black lives don't matter if they are they are being killed by other black people.