Brexit

[Eoin McLove]

100 days to go until they leave and it appears the UK is in utter disarray.  How much of what is being said about food shortages and having the troops mobilized -and to what end- is scare mongering from remainers or is a likely eventuality is anyone's guess.  How it will impact on Ireland's trade and the border up North is anyone's guess.  The UK seem massively divided so who knows what sort of civil unrest might be on the cards,  too.  If they carry on they seem to be fucked,  if they hold another referendum it could lead to an endless back and forth of indecision. 

What do you reckon? Are we all fucked? Or perhaps it's the millennium bug all over again!

[ochoill]

We'll be fine, they'll be scalded.  I was worried purely from a professional standpoint a while back (logistics manager) but have since been able to sort any expected issues through customs warehousing or sourcing parts from elsewhere in the EU.  Other industry will be hit a bit but I can't see it leaving us as fucked as we would be led to believe at all.

The only real issue is with the border in the north really, and the only effective way to keep that smooth is to keep NI in the customs union, which seems to just not be happening.  What will end up happening in the next three months is anyone's guess.

So I guess we'll need work visas if we want to play gigs in the UK after the fact.

[Pedrito]

I think the way they are being treated by the EU should be a lesson to us all. I have been, and am generally, pro Europe, but the more I see of the threats and nastiness that is employed when people oppose Brussels, the less convincing I find it. If we look back at when our economy almost collapsed and the threat by Troika of a bomb going off on O´Connell street, it is clear that they don't take kindly to dissenting voices. The EU has become very bloated and far outstretches what it was meant to initially represent. For this reason, I don't see Brexit with all the doom and gloom others see it. If Norway and Switzerland can maintain such healthy economies, despite not being part of the EU, then surely Britain can. In fact, it could be argued that they might be a whole lot better off as a result. Additionally, it is clear that the UK has become a destination of choice for many people who see it as a place they can survive and use the system to make their lives better, and who would blame them. However, there is only so much that one country can handle and it seems that many of the services that UK people took for granted in the past are now creaking at the seams.

Of course, the usual lazy tropes of racism, xenophobia, closed mindedness are bandied about constantly, but surely the people who live in a country should be those who make the decisions, at least that's how it used to work...the politicians used to work for our benefit and not vice versa. Now any divergence from the plan is looked upon as civil disobedience, anti system or just downright stupidity and lack of understanding. No wonder people are getting just a bit fed up with this type of narrative.

The UK has done so much for the world in terms of advances in technology, education, human rights, law etc etc etc. It has been a place of advancement, and despite our difficult past with it, many of my family moved there, some only for a short while, and were all given opportunities to work and  advance themselves.

Ultimately, I believe the vote should be honoured. The people spoke and any going back on that feels to me like an attack on democracy. The scaremongering has reached epic levels, similar to the scraemongering that was rolled out when Scotland went to vote on independence, similar also to what is going on here in Spain in relation to Catalonia...constant doomsday prophecies, completely overexaggerated nonsense. Catalonia could be independent tomorrow, Scotland too and the UK leave the EU and real life would continue on. People would get up for work, you would still be ordering crap on Amazon, cross border sellers would need to figure out some new rules and factor them into their costs and maybe we might get control of the border we have with the UK, which at the moment allows for a whole lot of back and forth without too much control at all, which seems odd if you look at it from a legal and  security point of view.

Also, from an Irish point of view, I find it very strange that we have forgotten how much they helped us after our economy crashed...very short memories indeed. Maybe we could take our eyes off the greasy till for a while and try to see it all in a far more rounded, holistic sense instead of always boiling everything down to what the banks are saying and our constant obsession with money. Maybe there's a great opportunity in all of this for their countries. Certainly our Taoiseach is the perfect yes man, the perfect shill. He backed the EU against Catalonia, he has as much as said that we will be part of an EU army, like it not, politely breezing over our traditional neutral stance as if it were a mere inconvenience. He recently announced that our country will expand by 1 million extra people in it in the next 20 years..again with no clarification, and he's singing from the EU hymnsheet with our closest neighbour and market. A wolf in sheep's clothing if ever I saw one.

Finally, the UK was never going to be comfortable taking orders from Europe. A quick glance at a history textbook should be enough to confirm this. We are viewing Brexit within a small historical timeframe, not taking into account the hundreds of years of distrust between the crown and the likes of Spain, France, Germany etc. Religiously they weren't comfortable taking orders from Rome and it's not too long ago that they were fighting the nazis on the battlefields of France. So, yes, Europe has been a great force for good, but maybe it isn't the perfect solution and it needs a good hard kick in the ass. It has become too centralised and countries are expected to fall into line without dissent. This cannot be a good thing and bravo our neighbours for throwing a much needed spanner in the works. We Irish tend to adopt the colonial servile manner when it comes to taking orders, but it's a very healthy thing that Merkel was taken down a couple of pegs and that they might need to actually start listening to the rest of us instead of ploughing on with their visions of how things should be. I would favour a scaling back of the EU rather than further expansion. It has been a great force for good, but it is obvious that the current direction needs adjusting.   

[Trev]

Did they really help that much? They gave a loan which needs to be repaid with interest,  which was also in their benefit to keep the Irish economy up given the amount they import from here

[Pedrito]

I didn't see too many other countries reaching out. Certainly there was a pervading sense of Schadenfreude coming from many German commentators at the time. A sense of we got what we deserved and we sucked it up and flagellated ourselves accordingly. I'll never forget that orgy of self recrimination and chastisement we put ourselves through..pathetic stuff.

[Caomhaoin]

Varadkar is just a slightly less gay version of Justin Trudeau, even though Leo is the homosexual of the two. His pro EU stance, come what may, is infuriating. France have their own version, and are just not coming to the réalisation that he is, as Pete says, a wolf in sheep's clothing.

The vote should absolutely be respected, but from experience going right back to Maastricht, the EU has a 100% record of 'replaying' every single no vote they've received, including from ourselves. Remember these cunts are unelected bureaucrats! And the threats against Hungary and to a lesser extent, Poland for going against the grain regarding uncontrolled mass immigration should be a wake up call. This Verhofstadt character calling on the US to intervene militarily! Fuck off.

[Pedrito]

I remember arguing vehemently for a second vote on the Lisbon treaty. I can't even recall the details of it now but looking back on it now maybe I was very naive about it. Certainly, I wouldn't have anywhere near the same confidence in these resold referendums than I did then.

[hellfire]

I'd agree with a lot of what was said in this thread. I think the EU has long since overstepped it's bounds and is a runaway dictatorship train at this stage. They desperately want to see British people eating out of soup kitchens after they leave. That's not going to happen. The way the Irish government has sided with the EU over what is now our closest ally is shocking.  As someone correctly pointed out, when the Irish economy crashed the UK were more than helpful.  The Germans and the EU offered loans with interest rates close to thirty percent as well as punitive and economy damaging conditions. 

The EU would do well to remember that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world. Most industries in the 27 other states will go berserk if they are denied access to that market.  Another referendum is not happening. Although that is the EU way. You can vote as long as we like the result, otherwise vote again.  Junker and his buddies will go back to treating us like shit the minute Brexit is over.  Being islands off of mainland Europe means that both nations have similar interests.  As for Varadkar, fuck him. He is a pure lackey for the EU. Does not give two fucks about Irish people and is willing to sell the entire country up the river if it means pleasing his EU buddies. 

This ballacting over free movement of people when most polls show the UK public are overwhelmingly against it is nonsense. Lower paid workers in the UK are already seeing slight increases in their pay packets because of the slowdown in unlimited labour.  Personally I am hoping Brexit is so much of a success that we end up following.  I do not  believe that the EU or the bigger states in it have the interests of anyone but themselves at heart. It was designed to stop a German dominated Europe. It ended up with the German government being able to implement their policies in other countries and override elected governments. 

[Trev]

As someone correctly pointed out, when the Irish economy crashed the UK were more than helpful.  The Germans and the EU offered loans with interest rates close to thirty percent as well as punitive and economy damaging conditions. 

The UK was charging a higher interest rate than the IMF (.2% more) and the same as the EU

The EU would do well to remember that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world. Most industries in the 27 other states will go berserk if they are denied access to that market.  Another referendum is not happening. Although that is the EU way. You can vote as long as we like the result, otherwise vote again. 

I really don't see the problem with another referendum. They voted to leave, grand,  spent two years now negotiating it. So what's wrong with putting it to the people to continue with leaving with the deal done, leaving with no deal, or not leaving?

[Eoin McLove]

Interesting.  Those opinions seem to go against most of what is being reported in the press.  Why,  in your opinions,  is this positive angle not being promoted in mainstream media? What's the benefit of staying with the EU? Surely a stable and war- free Europe is a good thing so do you think that a dissolved Europe would remain stable? At the moment there seems to be a rise in both far right and far left activity across Europe and the western world generally. Who knows where that might potentially lead if every country went it alone.  Imagine a Trump figure emerging in Europe under those conditions.  Who knows what it might lead to! Just thinking out loud as I have no idea what Brexit will lead to for the UK and Ireland in terms of economics and nationalist- loyalist friction up north. 

Ireland is such a small and fairly insignificant country in the grand scheme of things so maybe it's safer economically to stick with Europe rather than bailing out with the UK. I understand that we have strong trade links there,  but we have strong links with Europe as well. 

Maybe I'm a bit bamboozled by the doomsday scenarios I'm hearing on the radio every day but it seems more prudent to hang on in there.

[hellfire]

The EU is seen as liberal when it is anything but.  I put to you a list of names Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk, Manuel Barroso and Herman van Rompuy. Explain to me how your vote in any way affects the positions they hold/held. They have all made massive decisions affecting Ireland. The idea that in the 21st century Europeans cannot contain themselves from violence is nonsensical. Paying into the EU to avoid war with European countries is like the mafia asking for money not to smash your store. The current narrative in the media and the disconnect between what people want and what politicians are doing is EXACTLY what will cause a Trump like figure to emerge.  Parties that would not have been given the time of day 15 years ago are springing up all over the place. AFD, Sweden Democrats, Front Nationale and Five Star Movement in Italy would not have been taken seriously in 2010.

The BBC stuck to the anti Brexit narrative even as the votes were coming in. The Irish and British media insisted that there was no hope it would pass. Trump may have surprised you, but I won fifty quid on him getting elected. What is being reported is not representative of what people think. All you are being told is that it's bad. Have you ever seen someone pro Brexit on an Irish news outlet where they weren't made out to be a racist crackpot? I'd completely agree that Ireland needs to hitch its wagon somewhere, but an unelected bunch of corrupt bureaucrats isn't it.

[hellfire]

As someone correctly pointed out, when the Irish economy crashed the UK were more than helpful.  The Germans and the EU offered loans with interest rates close to thirty percent as well as punitive and economy damaging conditions. 

The UK was charging a higher interest rate than the IMF (.2% more) and the same as the EU

The EU would do well to remember that the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world. Most industries in the 27 other states will go berserk if they are denied access to that market.  Another referendum is not happening. Although that is the EU way. You can vote as long as we like the result, otherwise vote again. 

I really don't see the problem with another referendum. They voted to leave, grand,  spent two years now negotiating it. So what's wrong with putting it to the people to continue with leaving with the deal done, leaving with no deal, or not leaving?

The initial loans offered were close to thirty percent. There was no takers in Ireland, Portugal or Greece so rather than have the EU economy collapse they were quickly brought down to 6% and then 3%. As I recall the IMF rate was lower than the EU too. There is no point in referendums if one side gets a redo when the public gets the wrong answer.

[Trev]

Nothing about it being the wrong answer but giving a better question. People voted to leave on a strictly binary choice without knowing exactly what it would entail, as there was obviously no deal on the table. Now that there is one, sort of, and given the magnitude of what it would mean, I'd see nothing wrong what another vote

[hellfire]

A matter of opinion I suppose. I'd personally find it distasteful. Another vote is not going to happen anyway.  Perhaps there should have been a package put forward before the vote, but the referendum passing wasn't supposed to be on the cards.  The Nice and Lisbon treaties over here were all voted for again until we got the right answer.  That's what I meant by getting the right answer.

[Mower Liberation Front]

  Surely a stable and war- free Europe is a good thing

Always laugh when Europhiles claim the EU has ensured no wars in Europe since it was founded, I thought that was more down to millions of American and Soviet troops pointing nukes at each other in central Europe.
And whenever you just mention what went on in the Balkans the excuses start flying.

The EU is unnecessary, the EEC was perfectly fine.