Finally. Something to be cheerful about.


Quote from: Bigmac on January 29, 2021, 04:26:26 PM
Anal Schwab

"You'll bend over, and you'll be happy"

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210128/china-using-anal-swabs-for-covid-testing
Man, I'd much prefer to get a quick one up the hoop then deal with another nasal swab

Quote from: Trev on January 30, 2021, 02:32:47 PM
Quote from: Bigmac on January 29, 2021, 04:26:26 PM
Anal Schwab

"You'll bend over, and you'll be happy"

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210128/china-using-anal-swabs-for-covid-testing
Man, I'd much prefer to get a quick one up the hoop then deal with another nasal swab

Aye, up the bum, no harm done.

Having had the nasal swab, I also fail to see how the anal one could be much worse. Story gave me a good laugh all the same.

Here's something I just saw https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9219379/amp/Why-coronavirus-cases-falling-fast-New-infections-drop-44-three-weeks.html

Anyone have any idea what is with that? My guess is that it is in fact seasonal despite many saying it isn't  and has little to do with measures. However, that doesn't do anything to explain the uniform drop because seasons vary worldwide. So maybe something to do with the new advice around testing issued by the WHO on 21 January.

Either way it's good news.

Quotethe UK - which has been under lockdown since January 6 - is now seeing just 23,355 new cases on an average day, down from its January 9 peak of nearly 60,000

The answer is right there. Countries globally are in various states of preventative measures. It's also why flu is down this season.


#2527 February 03, 2021, 11:18:07 PM Last Edit: February 04, 2021, 07:37:56 AM by astfgyl
Quote from: Black Shepherd Carnage on February 03, 2021, 10:49:18 PM
Quotethe UK - which has been under lockdown since January 6 - is now seeing just 23,355 new cases on an average day, down from its January 9 peak of nearly 60,000

The answer is right there. Countries globally are in various states of preventative measures. It's also why flu is down this season.



Florida.

There are over 30 papers saying lockdowns do very little. Give me a bit of time I'll link a few.  I think logic says lockdown must do something, but doesn't explain the drop in regions which don't do it.

Thailand.

Sweden.

South Dakota.

Also, the flu question is far from settled. Viral dominance is as legitimate a train of thought as the distancing. Susceptibility to covid as a new virus doesn't explain the complete lack of flu.

Brazil

Sweden didn't do nothing at all though, contrary to popular belief, and they upped their measures in December. I know nothing of your other examples though, to be fair.

#2529 February 03, 2021, 11:45:47 PM Last Edit: February 03, 2021, 11:51:27 PM by astfgyl
No you're right about Sweden. There is a common misconception on both sides of that, that nothing was done and that they fared worse than heavy lockdown places. They did do some stuff and fared neither worse nor better than many places. Cost/benefit shows them winning a bit though.

The other ones are worth a look.

Preprint here from john Ioannidis

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3

Links to peer reviewed ones in the comments underneath


Posted in December, but the data used is only up to July 2020.

#2531 February 04, 2021, 12:00:25 AM Last Edit: February 04, 2021, 12:21:39 AM by astfgyl
Aye, it goes back a bit. There are plenty more using the oxford stringency index vs outcomes, which show no real correlation as well. I'll go find some others but Ioannidis was a good name for the start. I didn't want to get some fringe shit

I wondered if hermits got sick but couldn't find anything. My guess is they shouldn't, but they are hermits, so it's not worth it for the likes of me.

I think lockdown has to work but don't think it explains the current drop worldwide because there are too many policy variations and yet it is doing its thing. Combo of seasonality and new WHO testing guidelines I reckon and measures would have to come into it as well, but given the first two factors, surely the response of the third should change


The banal cliche, age is just a number. No. I suspect there may be a little more to it than that.

It's said in a kind of fluff-brained optimistic way.