Coronavirus

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

It wasn't summer in Australia during the summertime here though Since your overall hypothesis about what's going on isn't clear, it also isn't clear why you're attaching so much importance to whether it's seasonal or not. It's not even clear whether you're still on the "it's not real" thing, or what's going on. The excess deaths, independent of cause (which you can see here in this image I posted just before the NYT article, but note the data isn't so up to date as the latter https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1334096045232500741?s=19) clearly fits with the COVID case and death curves. This means the burden of proof is on you to explain, for example, why Ireland hasn't had a second peak when countries on the same latitude but who didn't take such strict measures have (i.e. most notably the UK). Otherwise, it's just shooting cannon balls at flags. That's not the way to get ahead. You need to either start with a hypothesis, and then check that against the available data, or else try as much as possible to look at the data objectively, form an overall hypothesis, ask yourself what would make the hypothesis you've formed false, and see if such data exists. What you're doing is more like snatching at bits of data here and there and using them to attack other hypotheses, but not really trying to tie them all together to see if a better explanatory model can be drawn up. Cos if you don't have a better overall model - this is how it works in science - you ain't got nothin', regardless of the data you may have collected.

[astfgyl]

No it wasn't summer there at the same time as here, but when we were being hit badly and they were being held up as the poster boy for restricting incoming travel, they were just coming to the end of their summer. It's also worth noting that they don't traditionally suffer from anything like the level of respiratory infections that we do here in any given year. I don't think it's not real but I certainly think it's a load of bollix how it has been overblown to the extreme. I think mass testing has painted a very misleading picture of the situation.

The seasonality point is important because it pulls the rug from under the lockdowns somewhat, ie why did Ireland's rates fall? Because of seasonality or because we did such a good job of all being in it together? The problem I have with those stats from the NYT is that they focus on covid-labelled deaths and not overall excess mortality from all causes, so if a heart disease victim succumbs with a positive test but are asymptomatic, they would still show up in the covid tally but not the overall excess.

So my basic hypothesis is that the thing ran its' course here without us actually knowing much about it and by the time we locked down the peak of infections had already passed and the resulting deaths just needed to catch up over the next few weeks. This of course coincided with locking down so that then is painted as the solution to something to something that had simply ran its' course. The lockdowns are then pushed strongly, suiting the agenda of many of the pharma companies along with being extremely handy for meeting the almost impossible emissions targets for this year. Enter The Great Reset, the censorship of dissent on the major media and social media channels, and the promise to Build Back Better... all on the back of something that has been conveniently blown out of all proportion to allow it to happen. If we hadn't had it all taken away we wouldn't have this apparent appetite to take whatever vaccine is put in front of us (which we are all be about to be test subjects of) and we also wouldn't need to buy into the forthcoming health passport and all of the intrusive surveillance that will entail. So by accident or design, the current pandemic has been extremely convenient for a lot of global interests who won't be letting it go quietly or any time soon.

Looking at the twitter link you posted which does take all-cause mortality into account, the most surprising thing for me is how many countries are within the normal range of deaths. I would have expected more to have an initial spike.

Edit: I also think the reason that the Great Barrington declaration has been so disparaged is because it doesn't suit the agenda of building back better if shit doesn't fucking collapse first and the idea that they propose is way too much like going back to normal for that to happen. Interesting to see our own health minister using that very term a week or so ago as well, but sure that's just an oul conspiracy theory to think that any of this is to do with any sort of global agenda.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Okay, but there's so much that doesn't add up there, from the very small to the very big.

if a heart disease victim succumbs with a positive test but are asymptomatic, they would still show up in the covid tally but not the overall excess

All deaths show up in the overall excess; the excess is a tally of all deaths, regardless of cause, which, for whatever reason, happens to be significantly higher than previous years. So, regardless of how an individual dies, that death goes in the records for the week of their death, and if there is an excess that week compared to the same week averaged over the previous X number of years, then the poor prick who slipped in the bathroom and opened his skull also contributes to it.

why did Ireland's rates fall? Because of seasonality or because we did such a good job of all being in it together?

Okay, but then why is Ireland, the first country to lock back down, one of the only two countries that hasn't seen any level of second wave? You have to explain that too, you don't get away with just explaining half of a phenomenon. And why in France, for example, did the deaths shoot up because measures weren't taken, continue to shoot up after measures were initially taken (second lockdown) and are now, after a month of these new measures, starting to go down again, despite the fact that "seasonally speaking" we're only getting going? (Not saying there aren't things to explain this, but you haven't tried to account for them: you also don't get away with trying to explain COVID like it's something that can be understood by only looking at what's happening in Ireland.)

Looking at the twitter link you posted which does take all-cause mortality into account, the most surprising thing for me is how many countries are within the normal range of deaths. I would have expected more to have an initial spike.

So, if it's all just made up, why didn't they? Have you looked at some of the analysis into why these countries didn't have an initial spike? Trends in the movement of people across borders, etc.? Look at the European countries without an initial spike and see what kinds of things are different between them and the countries that did have an initial spike; geography, international business interests, GDP, wealth, all sorts of things which might explain a higher density of cross-border travel into and between the latter category countries out of any kind of holiday season. Apart from Germany and Austria, with their incredibly well-equipped medical service, all of the top European GDP countries are in the latter category. Top GDP also means highest density of people moving in and out. Arrange this table by rank: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita#List_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita_2019

How does your hypothesis account for all of that better than others?

[astfgyl]

Okay, but there's so much that doesn't add up there, from the very small to the very big.

if a heart disease victim succumbs with a positive test but are asymptomatic, they would still show up in the covid tally but not the overall excess

All deaths show up in the overall excess; the excess is a tally of all deaths, regardless of cause, which, for whatever reason, happens to be significantly higher than previous years. So, regardless of how an individual dies, that death goes in the records for the week of their death, and if there is an excess that week compared to the same week averaged over the previous X number of years, then the poor prick who slipped in the bathroom and opened his skull also contributes to it.

That one was poorly typed was all. I meant that the graph of covid deaths can be misleading. Of course a fella couldn't show up in either graph without dying but that the covid graph can only be taken along with all-cause at the end of things due to the likes of the crazy 28 day labelling system which by it's very design has to lead to misreporting.

I'll be back about the rest. I definitely have a few things about Ireland as it's the one I've looked the hardest at. There is a bit of the Great Barrington involved although probably not intentionally. Wife will kill me if I get straight into this after work but I'll be back.

Edit: Anyway the GDB thing I was getting at is that perhaps in Ireland with the tightening up in the nursing homes and hospitals, where most infections seem to occur and the fact that a lot of people won't visit the hospitals for minor complaints (which might not be a bad thing) may be inadvertently leading to a sort of Focused Protection model, given that it is precisely the frail individuals who are in hospitals and nursing homes that are the highest risk group.

Looking at the number of positive tests since September here and taking it that most are indicative of active infection, it would seem that locking down has had minimal effect on spread and yet the number of deaths has remained stubbornly low. Given what we accept, that this is deadly for the aged (but mostly because they have other things wrong with them) it seems the low death rate from the high number of positive tests would suggest that the stringent measures taken around the highest risk settings has had more of an effect on the death rate than locking down.

That's what I think I'm seeing here in Ireland. As for Europe I'll have to think about it for a bit

[Kurt Cocaine]

 

https://www.facebook.com/Sportuokime/videos/tv-%C5%BEini%C5%B3-metu-vie%C5%A1ai-%C5%BEmon%C4%97s-apgaudin%C4%97jami%C5%A1tai-kaip-skiepysis-vadovyb%C4%97sdalinam%C4%97s-/288387972204256/

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Beginning of the end now; the UK has begun generation of human 5G signal boosters...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/coventry-woman-90-first-patient-to-receive-covid-vaccine-in-nhs-campaign

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/william-shakespeare-first-man-to-get-pfizerbiontech-coronavirus-vaccine-as-mass-rollout-begins

"And yet, to me, what is this quintessence of SAR-CoV-2 dust??"

[astfgyl]

Beginning of the end now; the UK has begun generation of human 5G signal boosters...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/coventry-woman-90-first-patient-to-receive-covid-vaccine-in-nhs-campaign

Ah the old 5G. That thing that has been rolled out all over the country and nobody noticed anything. Absolutely deadly. For a different thread but I can see many of the applications of 5G being truly awful but not the thing in itself.

In other news any death within 28 days of a covid vaccination is to be classified as a covid vaccination death in the interest of fairness to those folks who were wrote down as covid deaths with the 28 day rule.

[lifeeternal]

Beginning of the end now; the UK has begun generation of human 5G signal boosters...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/coventry-woman-90-first-patient-to-receive-covid-vaccine-in-nhs-campaign

Ah the old 5G. That thing that has been rolled out all over the country and nobody noticed anything. Absolutely deadly. For a different thread but I can see many of the applications of 5G being truly awful but not the thing in itself.

In other news any death within 28 days of a covid vaccination is to be classified as a covid vaccination death in the interest of fairness to those folks who were wrote down as covid deaths with the 28 day rule.

Nobody noticed anything? Are you living under a fucking rock?

[Kurt Cocaine]

The only 5G I noticed was the mushie variety.

[astfgyl]

Beginning of the end now; the UK has begun generation of human 5G signal boosters...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/coventry-woman-90-first-patient-to-receive-covid-vaccine-in-nhs-campaign

Ah the old 5G. That thing that has been rolled out all over the country and nobody noticed anything. Absolutely deadly. For a different thread but I can see many of the applications of 5G being truly awful but not the thing in itself.

In other news any death within 28 days of a covid vaccination is to be classified as a covid vaccination death in the interest of fairness to those folks who were wrote down as covid deaths with the 28 day rule.

Nobody noticed anything? Are you living under a fucking rock?

Nah it's an igneous rock. What is it that I'm supposed to have noticed beyond the mobile companies claiming to have 5G coverage all of a sudden? Seriously like, I don't see the difference and I'm as paranoid as it gets around here

[lifeeternal]

Beginning of the end now; the UK has begun generation of human 5G signal boosters...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/coventry-woman-90-first-patient-to-receive-covid-vaccine-in-nhs-campaign

Ah the old 5G. That thing that has been rolled out all over the country and nobody noticed anything. Absolutely deadly. For a different thread but I can see many of the applications of 5G being truly awful but not the thing in itself.

In other news any death within 28 days of a covid vaccination is to be classified as a covid vaccination death in the interest of fairness to those folks who were wrote down as covid deaths with the 28 day rule.

Nobody noticed anything? Are you living under a fucking rock?

Nah it's an igneous rock. What is it that I'm supposed to have noticed beyond the mobile companies claiming to have 5G coverage all of a sudden? Seriously like, I don't see the difference and I'm as paranoid as it gets around here

People were having protests, setting masts on fire (which weren't actually 5g masts) it was a massive thing when the pandemic started "oh its the 5G making us sick" which morphed into "oh its not real they are going to impose martial law" which has morphed into "its all a scam to put nanochips in us with the vaccines which they need 5g to operate" circle of idiocy is complete.

[astfgyl]

Yeah I get what you're saying but in essence you are only reinforcing what I was saying. The 5G was rolled out, no-one noticed. There were protests to notice, there were theories bandied about but at the end of the day it happened and no-one notices anything. As I said, it is the future applications of it rather than the actual technology in itself that will be the issue. IMO, it will be yet another tool which leads to absolute conformity and total surveillance but doesn't seem to be microwaving us as was feared. Sure look at the internet for confirmation of good technology being a bad thing in its' application. Or RT-PCR for another one...

[astfgyl]

Cognitive Dissonance:

I can sit in Costa without a mask and feel safe but I wear a mask driving around on my own because the invisible enemy is everywhere.

If I am a professional, it is far too dangerous to go to work but if I work in a shop it is considered safe enough.

SME's are the most dangerous places to be, but massive corporations are safe to visit.

I am safe to be in a pub with a dinner, but not to sit at the same table simply having a drink.

This virus is so infectious that not one person working in any of the shops in town has caught it.

We are all in this together all of a sudden and we now trust the word of the same politicians we wouldn't piss on last year and in fact tried to get rid of them at the election. RIGGED ELECTION!!

We have a team of experts driving policy during this extremely dangerous time who are all fully impartial in spite of their links to the very industries who will profit most from their decisions. (NPHET member running testing lab for example)

The hospitals are under such pressure that they are almost empty for most of the year.

There has not been a single case of flu this season because everyone is wearing masks and distancing. Covid cases keep rising because we are not all wearing our masks and distancing.

Nobody trusts a word out of China in the normal run of things but every country in the world has copied their system of epidemic management in spite of the fact that the death rate is now known to be at least 10 times lower than what China had reported.

The virus has ravaged Ireland to the extent that we are heading for a record low year for all cause mortality.

The anti-capitalist left are the ones pushing the hardest for conformity and feeding the massive corporations they used to be against. (That is surely
the greatest flip of all)

There are many many more examples on both sides of the argument if anybody wants to join in.

[Kurt Cocaine]

For astfygl.....

https://youtu.be/QbGJ4twuLS8