Coronavirus

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

So what gives?

That it has always been a shaky at best argument?

[astfgyl]

There's an argument there, and given the stakes involved it is certainly worth more mainstream debate. I don't know enough to know how strong or weak it is though, but keeping it out of the mainstream sends more like myself towards the fringe looking for more info. Besides that though, what about the HPSC publishing their recommendations about lowering CT values vs the actual fact of people testing negative the 2nd time round seeming to fly in the face of that notion? I'll have to let that one roll around for a bit, but it isn't a question I see addressed anywhere even though it's a fair one to wonder about.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Some more excess death rates, international this time:
https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1334096045232500741?s=19

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Maybe easier to read from here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/04/world/europe/europe-covid-deaths.html

Edit: This is actually quite a good read, broad-reaching scope, analysis, and perspectives.

[astfgyl]

Maybe easier to read from here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/04/world/europe/europe-covid-deaths.html

Edit: This is actually quite a good read, broad-reaching scope, analysis, and perspectives.

Look at Ireland there. Also France by those graphs is no worse than last season. No better either, mind.

Also check Euromomo for their graphs of excess all-cause mortality, sidestepping the issue of mislabelling deaths which shows "second wave" or "endemic seasonal respiratory infection" to be about half of the first. The NYT article there focuses purely on C19 deaths so doesn't count for the dropoff in other causes which has been noted in some countries. It's also worth noting that most countries having a higher peak now seem to have avoided it somewhat during last season, so maybe there is something in that Dry Tinder theory after all. Have to wait until the end of April to give Ireland a proper comparison which includes the epidemic anyway. Italy will be the first in Europe to get the full year comparison and it will be interesting to see how it compares with 2018 when they had a severe respiratory season over there

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Yup, must have won the lottery to be excluded from having a second peak, right?

[astfgyl]

Maybe it will hit again in March in true seasonal fashion?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Maybe it will hit again in March in true seasonal fashion?

That doesn't make sense, since Ireland is an exception to a rule which has two peaks so far this year.

[astfgyl]

It looks to me that a lot of the graphs in the NYT article show that the countries in question didn't have a first peak to speak of. Do you honestly think this isn't seasonal in nature, that as the WHO says it is "one big single wave"?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

It looks to me that a lot of the graphs in the NYT article show that the countries in question didn't have a first peak to speak of.

The article went to the effort to distinguish three trends: second peak larger than first, second peak smaller than first, and second peak significantly smaller than first.

Ireland is in the third class. Ireland is also the country which introduced a second lockdown earlier than any other country, before any local sign of a second wave.

[astfgyl]

Yes it does have some interesting data on there. I will get a proper look at it at some stage of the day as I have only glanced thus far.

So do you think it's seasonal in nature yourself? And would that possibly explain the massive dropoff in the summer months and the resurgence in the winter? If that was the case, then it would certainly dispense with the idea of summer lockdowns at the least even if it did make a case for winter ones (I'm still not convinced of that except maybe by personal choice for the most vulnerable groups)

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

"There was a certain hesitancy to reintroduce the measures after the summer, because we all knew what they meant in terms of the economy and society," said Bruno Ciancio, the head of disease surveillance at European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

"That hesitancy didn't really pay off. When you reach the levels that you see now, you have to go back to those measures anyway, but the price you pay is very high in terms of hospitalizations and deaths," he added.

The few countries that did move fast saw great benefits. Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway have kept the second wave at bay. Ireland has recorded fewer than 300 deaths since September 1, just 15 percent of its first wave total, after a tough and early second national lockdown.

I was very critical of the second lockdown in Ireland myself, thought it was overkill (excuse the dark pun), but it nevertheless seems to have worked, when comparing to other countries which were much slower in introducing second wave measures, such as France, Spain, etc. The two things aren't in contradiction; if you have a headache and you take morphine, you'll feel better, but it could still be seen as overkill...but the headache is nevertheless real. Simplistic attempts at analysis are not so useful.

Do I think it's seasonal? I think it's obvious that we don't have enough data yet to know whether it's seasonal; to measure that would, surely, require the possibility of following its evolution over more than one year.

[astfgyl]

Yeah we are playing very nicely into a future of lockdowns indeed. I can't wait. Good analogy with the headache though.

How is the summer explained away if not by seasonal differences in temperature/humidity? Did the virus go on holidays because we sure as fuck were going wherever we liked during those months... except the pub of course.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

If it is a "seasonal" thing, then its season is much larger than the flu's season. But this year, it's very difficult to tell, since there were widespread lockdowns late into spring across Europe, which meant that population circulation during the summer was much lower. Increase began again already in mid August. Certainly there are seasonal factors, but we don't know enough. Here's a few bits and pieces on that:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02972-4

[astfgyl]

The seasonality discussion is in large part being obscured by the insistence of the WHO that it is a single event and definitely not seasonal. The differences in latitudes are not being taken into account when discussing the relative success or lack thereof with a lot of countries, and yet are accepted for other coronavirus variants as well as the likes of rhinovirus and influenza. For example, Australia is seen as doing very well because of locking down but not a peep about them being in summer there. Same thing happened here last May/June as the weather picked up. Coincidence? I dunno, seems iffy.

From the NYT:

But most dramatically, nearly every country in Central and Eastern Europe — which as a region largely skirted the first outbreak — is now seeing alarming spikes in cases and deaths.

Could also mean that the avoidance of last season just saved it up for this run. Calling Europe as a single entity for a wave of anything is misleading at any rate, given the differences in climate and population densities and wildly differing cultural factors. Same as the US being considered as a single location when it is encompassing distinctly different climates

Ireland has been mild and humid so far this winter and I wouldn't rule out a stinging cold and dry February and March as we had last year to lead to a similar situation as April this year, although surely something will have been learned in the meantime around when to ventilate or not or indeed when to hospitalise patients at all vs the blind panic of early 2020. PPE situation should be better in nursing homes and hospitals as well so lockdown or no lockdown, vaccine or no vaccine it shouldn't reach the extent of last season. I still think it's in the post for spring here more than we are so great for locking down in time.

Also the Great Barrington Declaration still seems like the most palatable way through this as I see it, but they seem to be pissing into the wind everywhere outside of Florida.