General Election Thread

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

I would tend to disagree that what we're after getting is better than whatever else was on offer. Despite SF ballsing up in a couple of respects recently, I don't think they are "worse" than FFG, or rather I don't think we can judge them as worse until they've failed, as FFG have done, in power. Personally I'd tend to think that people who will be "grand" under an umpteenth repetition of FFG would also have been "grand" under SF + whoever, but with the added at a minimum bonus of FFG having the complacency (and Micheal Martin the smirk) smacked off them.

Also, it should be clear from Grim Reality's posts that his position (which is a totally valid one even if I disagree with it) isn't so much that the opposition was "shit" in the sense you mean it, but rather that what the opposition (SF, Soc Dems, PBP, Labour) claim to be aiming for, even if they did so perfectly, is wrong per se, or "inherently unnatural."

But the result is also "grand" for me in the sense that it continues the trend of FFG gradually losing their grip on the country's politics, and doing so in a progressively progressive rather than reactionary direction, notably in that SF's slip down from 2020 didn't translate into an uptick for FFG:

Edit to flesh that out:
FFG first preference voter share by general election so far this century:
2002 - 64%
2007 - 69%
2011 - 54%
2016 - 50%
2020 - 43%
2024 - 43%
https://www.facebook.com/groups/irelandspolitics/posts/1221225752287013/?_rdr

[Ollkiller]

Soc Dems. Will be gone in a few years. Bring back the PDs.

Soc dems have doubled their vote in each election. They're going nowhere. Can see them being the fourth biggest parry by the next election.

[astfgyl]

I would tend to disagree that what we're after getting is better than whatever else was on offer. Despite SF ballsing up in a couple of respects recently, I don't think they are "worse" than FFG, or rather I don't think we can judge them as worse until they've failed, as FFG have done, in power. Personally I'd tend to think that people who will be "grand" under an umpteenth repetition of FFG would also have been "grand" under SF + whoever, but with the added at a minimum bonus of FFG having the complacency (and Micheal Martin the smirk) smacked off them.

Also, it should be clear from Grim Reality's posts that his position (which is a totally valid one even if I disagree with it) isn't so much that the opposition was "shit" in the sense you mean it, but rather that what the opposition (SF, Soc Dems, PBP, Labour) claim to be aiming for, even if they did so perfectly, is wrong per se, or "inherently unnatural."

But the result is also "grand" for me in the sense that it continues the trend of FFG gradually losing their grip on the country's politics, and doing so in a progressively progressive rather than reactionary direction, notably in that SF's slip down from 2020 didn't translate into an uptick for FFG:

Edit to flesh that out:
FFG first preference voter share by general election so far this century:
2002 - 64%
2007 - 69%
2011 - 54%
2016 - 50%
2020 - 43%
2024 - 43%
https://www.facebook.com/groups/irelandspolitics/posts/1221225752287013/?_rdr

SF pretended to oppose vaccine passports by leaving enough TDs out to make sure it would pass, including Mary Lou herself (coincidentally, Mary Lou's sister is a shareholder in a company called Vaccitech, which I'm sure has no bearing at all but it's a thing all the same). Then they voted for hate speech laws in a far more stringent version than the one they eventually opposed due to a shit version of half arsed populism which they couldn't even do right. Half of their candidates are fucking bums, I know because I know all of the Tipperary chapter and half of them never worked in their lives. I completely disagree that they'd do anything better at all than the rotten fucks we have because even when in opposition they couldn't do fuck all. Beyond useless.

[Grim Reality]

Socialism like free school books and public transport and medical care for all is fine for me and if someone happens to have done well enough to get a bigger house they should also certainly be entitled to the same, given it's their taxes and not those of the lads at the bottom that would actually pay for that. I don't agree with my tax money being spent on giving free shit to layabouts and if I had my way I'd have the gestapo come and drag many of them out of bed in the morning and set them to work in a chain gang on projects for the greater good so yeah I'm a real socialist myself. I'd have the ipas lads out of the hotels working sure if they're fleeing such persecution etc they should be only delighted with the security of working here for it instead of being bored in the hotels with nothing to do, or even worse being back in their own places in terror of death or starvation. I'd have lads down the dole queue taking lads out of it to work. Nothing crazy, just 9 to 5 stuff so they'd be net contributors rather than the drain on money and resources they currently are. And if any of them were suffering we'd have free mental health services, free nursing homes for those who needed them after working all their lives. For those who couldn't work due to disabilities or caring for someone full time we'd have publicly funded services for that too, but none of that would work without serious reform of the whole taxation system as well as not going down a silly road such as saying the fella doing fuck all should have the same as the fella who does do a bit. People would be free to get rich and other People would be free to work less but couldn't claim on top of it without doing the government work, but with all the publicly funded free stuff, there'd be a real possibility for people to do that instead of being constantly backed into a corner. I would take all utilities into public ownership to keep the prices down and prevent the astronomical profits of shareholders being the foot on the head of those on more meagre means, but by fuck would I not just give people a load of free shit so that people just like me who can be arsed don't feel like getting up and going to work every day is a constant kick in the face.

Am I a socialist or a capitalist, and which political parties best represent my world view in this country? I don't think there's any tbh.

So yeah there may be global issues yeah but there's issues in other parts of the town here and I'm responsible for what goes on in my house so that's no excuse for ineptitude here, that other places are stupid.

I'm politically homeless myself but I fully understand why we got what we got in the election and must stand by the result given the extreme lack of anything serious as an alternative, no matter what the shinners might be saying in the dole queue.

I'd be 100% with you on that first paragraph. Always thought that way. I'm not against socialist actions provided they don't only benefit one section of society and penalise (tax) the other. Let the lads who don't want to work tip around all day doing whatever, going to the bookies, the library, for a walk, whatever. But don't give them extra at my expense! If SF or Labour want to "house" someone for free or cheap then I want 100k to help pay off my mortgage.

Chris you're a gas man and I've great time for your auld shite in general but I'm in work now and haven't the time to respond to your convoluted nonsense  Apart from to say that enforced socialism across the board is unnatural. A caring type of socialism for those in need (as suggested by astfygl) is inherently natural to man. You see it can be both?!?!

Maybe later. Good to have a civilised discussion all the same.

[The Butcher]

A lot on here are going on about the country being in a terrible state. There are issues such as housing crisis, immigration, cost of living. These are global issues!!!! FF or FG did not create them. The same way the PDs did not cause the financial collapse of 2008 yet they were blamed for it and folded a year later. The world is a much bigger and more complex place than fucking Martin or Harris making a cunt of things in Ireland. Of course they could make better decisions within the space they have. But I'd prefer an established and experienced party making those decisions than the opposition, which is pitiful.

Just my opinion here but to excuse issues off as global really gives governments a big big pass on it's responsibilities. Can definitely argue a case for the creation of these issues but there is no excuse for not keeping a balance/oversight and when to reign things in. In the 2000s we suffered a great deal more than any other country due to the size of our property and banking bubble. That was our fault. There was zero attempt by FF/PDs to slow down any of it in like a responsible government would have done. In fact they promoted it, encouraged people to buy at the heights of it. The stats speak for themselves during that era and once that bubble burst, unemployment went soaring to 15%, a €64 billion bank bailout (40% of GDP back then!), plus a decade of austerity and emigration. If you weren't touched by that at all, fair play for escaping it but others, not so lucky. We don't have long term thinking in this country - evident that the Labour party in 2013 spent taxpayers money demolishing ghost estates across the country. On principle alone, from that bubble era I wouldn't give FF a preference. And that's not even going into the sheer incompetence and corruption.

Same applies to the big issues of today - immigration for example while happening across the western world at different levels - we of course have to top the charts when it comes to the sheer amount we bring it and supply/demand shows we cannot cope in terms of services/infrastructure/housing/health. Our natural fertility rate has never gone beyond 2 in the last 20+ years so all the extra population growth has come from outside Ireland. I believe we are now at the start of where upcoming generations will have a degraded quality of life compared to previous generations. The only way I could let this be known was to vote for all the nutjobs, knowing they would never see the light of day in the dail but as a warning statistic for these "centre" type parties - that their vote is being eroded away if they don't act. I don't think it's good for democracy to have the same 2 parties at the helm for 100 years. The experience you speak of - Simon Harris - has he ever had a job in the real world?

*Extra rant for anyone who wants to read on further* 

I'm sure they are being told by various groups that if we don't take in huge numbers then we'll end up with an upside down pyramid by 2040 in terms of an aging demographic which will strain our health/pension sectors hugely. But no one seems to be thinking of how AI/Automation will impact jobs in a very drastic way in the next 10-20 years and then left with many people without work, some with no real affinity to our values/culture. I can see huge social fragmentation and a race to the bottom beginning (why hire an Irish programmer looking for 75k when you can hire an Indian on a work visa for 45k who will split a rental with 4 others in bunk beds - only picked Indian because there's an average of 2000 a month coming into the country currently). This is just the reality of the data - we can pretend this isn't happening but it's shifting the landscape of this country.

Look at the coffin beds in densely populated Asian cities and see what people start to accept, you can start to see a very bad path for western countries to go down. I think one problem is every system needs to have checks/balances otherwise it eventually tends towards corruption/cronyism.  Let capitalism run amok with no consequences for the crash in 2009 for banks, then you can see why in the end we got vulture funds, foreign funds with huge (one could say in context of Ireland - unlimited) purchasing power sweeping across and picking up land/property. There is money to be made in taking advantage of others and some do it with a smile pretending to help.

[The Butcher]

By the way Grim, that wasn't all directed at you, just the point on global issues

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Socialism is, at base, the idea that if you focus on and take care of society then quality of life will be better on the whole for all individual members of society also. The number of individuals who struggle to make ends meet due to wealth inequality far outweigh, on the national level, the numbers of those who might bottom feed off a system designed to help the former. Strange that the bottom 1% strike you as more parasitic than the top 1%. I wonder where an FG voter might have gotten such an idea from 

https://archive.is/4aR1j

[The Butcher]

https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1864300873435824557

New technical group for FF/FG to ponder.

[mickO)))]

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/2024/1203/1484435-electoral-register/

This is interesting.

[Mower Liberation Front]

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/2024/1203/1484435-electoral-register/

This is interesting.

I know someone who hasn't lived in this country for over twenty years, yet he's still on the register, and the election flyers still get sent to his family's place each election.

[Ollkiller]

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/2024/1203/1484435-electoral-register/

This is interesting.

Aye it needs to be sorted alright. Herself has a voting card in cork and one at home. Like you have 5 years between elections to sort it. Hire a few people and it'd get sorted in a year. I don't think theres any widespread voter fraud though.

[astfgyl]

Haven't ever even seen a mention of election fraud in Ireland other than the time it was the local elections and one of the candidates paid my missus (in booze, as he was a publican) to go to each voting centre (edit: polling stations) in the town (about 5 but it was years ago, could have been one more or less) with a different voting card to vote for him so I'm sure it was only herself who was asked and I'm sure it would never happen on any scale here.

For this general election I wasn't asked for any form of ID whatsoever, even though I had the licence on me after being asked for it diligently for the last referendum. Dunno why it was different this time.

Anyway, I guess the point is that paper ballots puts a stop to any of that lark

[Grim Reality]

That's a fair enough post @the butcher. I wouldn't really be arguing with you over it.

The Ghost Estates. Fucking hell I'd forgotten that term! And for it to flip in a few years to this housing crisis. There's so many factors at play its beyond me to try and explain or understand it.

Regards immigration I think it's close to out control. In my day job/industry we have plenty of the example you gave of the Indian tech worker taking a fraction of the salary an Irish person would expect as its unreal money for them in comparison to their homeland. These are Indians but also Polish, Portuguese, Italians, Romanians, Brazilians etc etc. I'll admit I've contemplated voting for some of the anti immigrant loons in the locals as a protest vote, just like you, but didn't do it.

Regarding AI, automation etc. That's a whole different topic. The changes we and our kids will see will be bananas and I'd love to be optimistic about it. I listen to the odd bit of Rogan and he has a few folk on who are optimistic about the future. Elon among them!

Black Shepherd Chris - I don't know if I'd regard the bottom 1% as more parasitic than the top 1%. I didn't mean to imply that anyway if that's how you read it. But certainly I don't generally begrudge rich people their wealth, though obviously I'm aware there are various nefarious methods used to arrive at that place. I'm in favour of the bottom 1% being cared for in a socialist fashion. Free shit etc. No expectation to work. Some people aren't cut out for it. In a mature and prosperous society we should look after all our citizens. But I wouldn't take from others (rich or plain old middle class) to pay for them without giving a few breaks to those who are going out and contributing to a functioning society as well.

It reminds me a bit of the run up to the US election. There was this talk from the left of 'how are these rural redneck, mechanic, farmer types all voting for Trump? How can they relate to this filthy rich obnoxious New Yorker?' Well, they admire him. Admire what he's achieved and all the cool shit he has. They want to be like him. "He's done well, he looks like he knows what he's doing". Not all people view wealth inequality as something to be broken down. Many view it as something to aspire to.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

US citizens who live in deprivation are lied to by means of those myths of the American dream and the self-made man. A lot of them buy it and I don't blame them personally for that: I don't criticize "good faith" MAGA supporters, only those who should know better or do know better (i.e. the cynical ones). But as a result of those myths and the evangelizing (pun intended) power of the various media and personality cult figures who push them loudest, wealth inequality in the US is more comparable to certain developing nations than it is to, say, anywhere in Europe. I take the US and its myths as a socio-economic lighthouse signalling territory to be avoided not aimed for. FG's welfare cheat diversion was a steer in that kind of direction imo, a real low point in cynical dishonesty wrt where the average Irish person's attention should be as regards financial cheats. And yeah, plenty of governments have historically carved similar myths of control out of "socialism": many lessons, many lighthouses, many territories to be avoided.

[mickO)))]

I see Eoin Hayes of the Social Democrats is in spot of trouble. He is on the free Palestine bandwagon while at the same time he made 200k from selling shares he had in a US software company that supplies the Israel Defense Forces. Claims he sold his shares in June before entering politics and becoming a councillor but now it looks like that was a lie and they weren't sold until July.