Coronavirus

[astfgyl]

Who gives a fuck about the number of mutations on the spike protein? It's just another angle to try keep the fear going and the variant shit has went up a notch since the renaming. Take the delta one for example, plenty of cases, fuck all hospitalisations, fuck all deaths. Take the Kent variant we were so scared of, fuck all deaths fuck all hospitalisations again. The fucking thing is seasonal so all the variant bullshit is simply bullshit until the winter illness season kicks back in and then whatever variant is in vogue will be blamed for extra deaths and more restrictions and booster shots and oh shit this one dodges the vaccine and oh no the unvaccinated can spread this one to the vaccinated and fuck we better give all the kids the vaccine as well just to be sure we can keep the schools open. Yeah it's seasonal. Imagine that, it's just like every other endemic respiratory virus doing the rounds including the several other coronaviruses which cause a common cold in people all over the world every year. Fucking variants, pure bullshit and go fuck with em. THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF VARIANTS ALREADY. Each new one of concern is of political concern

Meanwhile the segregation of society based on social status is going well in Ireland, where the VIP section of the pilot gig can mingle freely and der untermensch are in some sort of fucking sheep pen. For a seasonal virus which almost no one catches in the summer anyway just like all the other ones. Makes sense.



Filthy common scum, look at em.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

If it's purely seasonal, then why the mismatch in trends between neighbouring countries? The UK was low in cases until the delta variant hit (using that as a point in time, nothing else), a time at which France was high. France is now low and the UK is high. What trans-channel 4-6 week long "seasons" account for that?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Sure even compare the UK now to the UK at the same seasonal point this time last year:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Where do you get seasonality from that?? Can't conclude that there isn't a seasonal factor, but there's clearly some other factor that is able to beat it.

[astfgyl]

The trick is in the testing. It gives a false impression of what is actually going on due to pre test probability being low at this time of year. For example the common cold and influenza are both seasonal but that doesn't mean that no one is carrying it in the summer. In fact if we were to test with the same vigour for those we would almost certainly find many "cases" of those too. Hospital admissions and deaths are the only solid outcomes to really measure the severity by and both of those have fallen off a cliff in the summer both this year and last year. Cases are directly proportional to the number of tests performed both this summer and last. It's all on ourworldindata.com although the site is a bit unwieldy at times. The vaccines if they work will also influence the outcome but the efficacy of those cannot be truly measured until we go through another winter season. Different climates of course will have different seasonal curves so it won't be uniform worldwide at any given time. Also another note on the vaccines; if they work (and I have no reason to think they won't), variants are nothing to worry about no matter when they appear, although I suspect it will be like the flu jab and reduce rather than eliminate the impact. I'm also not going to claim to know the full mechanics of seasonality or whether it's down to vitamin D levels or some other combination of factors (because it's probably extremely complicated) but if it goes away in summer and comes back in winter, it's seasonal. Presumably there will also be differences in which exact weeks it kicks in from year to year but the overall effect is still noticeable. Definitely ignore case numbers though as they are pretty meaningless at this stage.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

So you're saying that the other major determining factor, after season, is the amount of testing? In which case, the UK must have been doing hardly any testing up til a few weeks ago but now they've started doing loads, whereas France were doing loads up til a few weeks ago and are now doing hardly any? Anything to back that up?? Any explanation as to why, even if it were true, post-Brexit UK would voluntarily push its own numbers up at this delicate point in time? Or do you reckon it's sabotage? Or is it at least as possible that more than anything else it really is all a big cluster-fuck that nobody is in control of but everyone's using to push their own agenda?

In any case, at the moment it looks like the UK are going to ignore their case numbers and drop restrictions anyway. That's set to happen just around the time we'll find out whether the current spike in cases translates into any increase in deaths.

[astfgyl]

Or is it at least as possible that more than anything else it really is all a big cluster-fuck that nobody is in control of but everyone's using to push their own agenda?

That's probably the best description of what is going on.

The UK to be fair do have a lot of excellent data published here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing which gives the tests per day and does indeed show a moderate increase in tests performed of late. I think they are looking to push on with the reopening because they don't foresee a massive wave of deaths, although personally I do expect it to come back in autumn and winter, with the resultant hospitalisations and deaths, but if it doesn't open up now it will have to be lockdowns again as the serious cases rise back up. I can see why politicians are reluctant to unlock things though and it's a case of damned if you do or damned if you don't. I can also see the reluctance to speak of seasonality because it means the response must be questioned and if I was in charge I wouldn't like to answer those questions, although I was all for lockdown in the beginning myself (well I didn't love the idea but did think it was the right thing, given the unknowns).

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Johnson at his most Boris; the perfect blend of loud, broad, freedom-granting claims, hedged all over the place with small print:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/boris-johnson-says-most-covid-rules-likely-to-end-in-england-on-19-july

[astfgyl]

There is a lot of that small print, too. And variant talk in there a fair bit, and also I see they have already pegged the flu for a return, showing remarkable foresight.

All the same, I truly hope they can weather the storm that will inevitably come with this, both politically and health-wise and lead by example for other countries who may be afraid to take a hard political decision in this part of the world just as Florida, Texas, Missouri and many others did in the US before things accelerated towards whatever is this new normal we've been promised. Also hopefully the vaccines provide robust enough protection in the vulnerable groups to keep deaths to a minimum, because that has been the one common purpose in all of this. Some wanted to do it by lockdowns and indirect deaths and ruination of lives and some wanted to do it by the road of focused protection which still made life pretty shit for the vulnerable and some wanted the straight up taking it on the chin and getting on with it, but all approaches were being sold on the argument of mitigating the number of deaths in the long run and no single approach is perfect for sure.

It does all come down to the notion of acceptable risk at the end though and I was helping my 80 something year old neighbour today with something and interestingly enough she was saying to me that she is done with it now, she has had covid already and has had two shots of the pfizer and now she thinks we all need to just get on with it and stop throwing the young under the bus because the shots are there to be had. She also couldn't give a fuck if I take it or not because she thinks her one either protects her or it doesn't and if it doesn't then what's the point in worrying if I've had mine or not. Good to hear it but instead of emboldening me, I was more inspired by her magnanimity and didn't bother getting into what I thought of it all. Still, if the seniors are done with it and all then it must be nearly finished hopefully.

[astfgyl]

Ah jaysus...



Follow the science!

[Carnage]

That is the most moronic thing I have ever read.

[Kurt Cocaine]

Fear is the virus.

[astfgyl]

Heineken is pisswater.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akxfPV-A_C0

At least James Corden isn't in it!

Also it looks like the eternal night isn't far off for these medical apartheid cunts so let them have their fun I suppose.

[astfgyl]

So you're saying that the other major determining factor, after season, is the amount of testing?

Further to that, and also acknowledging that of course testing is not the only factor (because winter), here's Paul Reid, head of the HSE explaining Ireland's recent moderate rise in "cases"

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1412330402476351490

Delta me hole.

[Giggles]

One of the differences between hotels and restaurants, is the customer's use of toilets

I'm going to Stendhal festival in Limavady tomorrow. 2 days of live music and cramping. The toilets are cleaned after every use, so I can't see this being a problem 

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Discovered who Dolores Cahill is today. Holy god:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/byelection-candidate-dolores-cahill-refused-admission-to-count-centre-1.4615772

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=867936700596462&id=108165827525134&fs=0&focus_composer=0&m_entstream_source=video_home&player_format=permalink&ref=search