Brexit

[Pedrito]

Is the defeated deal overly punitive? Much, indeed almost all, of the objection has been around the border here, the backstop and the Customs Union proposal, that it doesn't give them full sovereignty over their own borders - in the short term at least. I've heard little else which would suggest the deal was punitive.

I suppose it depends from what perspective you are looking at it from. From our Southedn Ireland point of view it's a total pain in the hole, we want the backstop as I'm sure most people do on a theoretical level. The issue with the backstop, however, is that it creates doubt around borders, sovreignty and ultimately the union. They already had a near miss with the Scottish independence referendum and anything that suggests fragility to the union is going to be opposed. From my reading of it, they are willing to risk economic upheaval for the wider and deeper questions surrounding territory and sovreignty. I can understand the goal, achieving it is going to be rough for all involved.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/john-humphrys-suggests-ireland-could-quit-eu-and-join-uk

"Mastermind"

[Juggz]

"We have agreed that we don't like the deal we agreed with you. What are you gonna do about it?"

[Emphyrio]

Simpletons. They're going to have to extend article 50 unless they decide to dig in and allow a no-deal scenario. The shitshow continues.

[Juggz]

They backed an amendment rejecting a no-deal scenario yesterday, along with voting in other "alternative arrangements" for the border issue. They haven't  clarified what those "alternatiive arrangements" are, because they don't know what they are, but those damn fascists in Brussels better figure it out and comply or else!

The greatest political shitshow of the modern age. The American situation looks like chaos but there's a steady and deliberate empowering of hardcore right-wing Christian groups going on under all the fluff about Trump. The UK is just shambolic. It's quite incredible.

[Emphyrio]

It seems like they view yesterday's vote as a success. They all agree that they don't like the backstop and now that they agree they don't like it,  they think they have more power to negotiate with Europe. Do they think that have made some progression in the last 24 hours or something?

It's startling that only a week ago May was saying the deal on the table was the best possible option but suddenly she is now in a better position of power to negotiate....??

Gowlbag

[Eoin McLove]

I'm so confused by it all. It seems as if none of them can even decide if they want to stay or go, changing team as they go along.  Who knows,  it might all work out eventually if they leave without a deal (or with one) but the short term looks to be chaotic.  The backstop issue just doesn't seem to make sense.  They appear to be treating the border as something they can decide to handle in whatever way they like even though Europe consistently says otherwise. Good Friday Agreement? Ah, it'll be grand...

[Juggz]

What are the options, really?

- The UK remains a part of the EU customs union, no hard border

- NI remains part of the EU customs union in a "temporary" backstop, no hard border here but a thorny issue between the UK and NI

- UK and NI leave the EU customs union, hard border here, Good Friday agreement is scrapped

- Ireland leaves the customs union with the UK, no hard border but everything else is fucked

Is there anything else? I don't see a way customs law can be maintained outside of those scenarios. What can they possibly hope to get out of renegotiation? Once Ni operates to different customs and immigration laws, how can there not be a border with different laws and governance either side of it?

[Eoin McLove]

How might it play out economically if Ireland ended up following the UK out of Europe? If that was the only way to maintain the soft border and prevent a return to violence up North?

[Eoin McLove]

I meant to say the UK's handling of the backstop makes no sense,  by the way. 

[Juggz]

I'd say it would be an economic catastrophe, to be rivalled only by the one heading towards the UK right now. I sincerely doubt my employer, for one, would stick around if we weren't their gateway into the EU.

A hard border is the only thing which actually delivers the one thing Brexit promised, more self-control. They need to leave, really leave, in order to be able to fully deliver it.

If they stay within the customs union, they lose their say in EU matters while still being bound by some EU laws.

If only NI stays within the customs union, they lose their say in some of their own laws, as does London, while Ireland retains influence in the same laws. Does anyone really expect the more radicalised Unionists to accept that, much like we don't expect the Republicans to be too chuffed about the return of a hard border?

It's utterly fucked, regardless of which way it goes.

[Eoin McLove]

Time to get that Australian visa and get the fuck out of dodge!

[Juggz]

Steve Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, was asked to explain the "alternative arrangements" today and replied they were "exploring in terms of the use of technology... looking at things like the time limit... There are a number of options, there are issues in terms of having time limits, issues in terms of exit clauses, issues in terms of technology and this will be the nature of the negotiation with the European Union in the coming days."

Meanwhile, former Brexit Secretary David Davis still insists the EU has more to lose and will come back for a late deal. He mentioned small airports in Southern France will have to shut down in the case of no-deal, deliberately overlooking the impact that no planes would also have on UK airports 

[ochoill]

How might it play out economically if Ireland ended up following the UK out of Europe? If that was the only way to maintain the soft border and prevent a return to violence up North?

Economically badly, it would suit the UK better than us by a mile if both countries left.  I also wouldn't see it preventing a return of violence or maintain a soft border.  For customs purposes we would both still be considered Third Countries to each other / separate customs entities, the only way to avoid that would be economically unifying trade and movement of people with the UK.  Assuming that happened, looking only economically at it we've removed ourselves from both tariff free trade with the EU and the countries they have agreements with on the whole.  No use in Ireland as an EU base for companies so they get out of dodge, huge job losses.  Also if we left the Eurozone we'd have to reinstate and float a new currency, we couldn't keep trading in Euro surely.  It's a fucked scenario.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

NI and Scotland have referendums to leave the UK. Ansin, go tobann, we can start a new union of Gaelic nations within the EU. Bualadh bos!