No gigs til 2021?

[StrangersWithGuns]

Gigs will be the last thing to start up again too, it's a killer. I wonder how many bands or venues this will sink. A single potential upside maybe if it flushes some bands out, im not talking about bands who's lives depend on it but just in Dublin, there's fucking thousands of bands clogging up the place.

[Eoin McLove]

Surely the raison d'etre of any band, or at least any worthwhile band,  is the exploration of ideas and creativity.  How a lack of gigs could 'sink' a venture that should be about taking an idea and running with it to create something new and, hopefully,  individual makes absolutely no sense to me. If it kills of a few careerists then who cares. Even the biggest Irish metal bands don't make a living out of gigs so it should have zero impact on their continued existence. It might bring a bit of reality back to the game for some people and may even help to refocus bands' attentions back to the important and essential reason for their existence in the first place. Plus,  how fucking deluded would a band have to be to think that the 'exposure' from a metal fest in the wilds of Leitrim would boost their career... that mentality just gives me the willies.

[Eoin McLove]

That final remark was a response to your comment in the thread about Hills of Metal Boggerphilfest or whatever the fuck it was called.

[ochoill]

Surely the raison d'etre of any band, or at least any worthwhile band,  is the exploration of ideas and creativity.  How a lack of gigs could 'sink' a venture that should be about taking an idea and running with it to create something new and, hopefully,  individual makes absolutely no sense to me. If it kills of a few careerists then who cares. Even the biggest Irish metal bands don't make a living out of gigs so it should have zero impact on their continued existence. It might bring a bit of reality back to the game for some people and may even help to refocus bands' attentions back to the important and essential reason for their existence in the first place. Plus,  how fucking deluded would a band have to be to think that the 'exposure' from a metal fest in the wilds of Leitrim would boost their career... that mentality just gives me the willies.

The only parts related to this that could be sunk are venues and promoters, a lack of easy gigs will whittle out anyone who's not doing it for honest creative reasons anyway, which is completely fine for the genres we would be thinking of anyway.  But yeah you've the nail on the head for all of that really.

[Eoin McLove]

It could impact promoters but I'm sure the likes of H, who has been doing this for a long time and built up the appropriate contacts and trust, will be back up and running asap. I've no idea what his savings are to survive the down time,  but I've no doubt he'll survive in the long run.  But I see that as a completely different situation.

[Airneanach]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coronavirus-gatherings-of-over-5000-people-to-be-banned-until-september-1.4234326

Mass gatherings of over 5,000 banned until at least September.

Easy one to see coming - and I know restrictions could be increased just as easily as they could be decreased - but it might prove to be an interesting positive outlier.  We're specifically being told with this that the government's current threshold for immediate social gatherings  in an ideal post lockdown is the 5,000 mark.

Bad news for big gigs, but could be something to hope for there with anyone running sub 5,000 venues. Will be hoping Monolith is still on the cards in August, myself.  This announcement could have put the bar at 1,000 people, 500, 100 but they haven't.

Whilst taking this seriously - I've been isolating for weeks - we've surely got to start sticking our necks back out sooner or later and go for somewhat of a herd immunity. These measures were only ever intended to take pressure off the health system by flattening the curve and spreading out cases, but a lot of folks now seem to think everything is off the cards until a golden egg vaccine just pops up anywhere from a few months to a year from now. I'm not necessarily sure is that right. Again I take this very seriously but there's fucking thousands of people out there who've caught this and had it run through their system without going on the books or presenting any notable symptoms. I'm glad we took the steps we did take, I'm just wondering how long they ought to be considered valid whilst up against trashing our way of life. A lot of the emotional reactions to this that ignore the complexities of the situation don't seem to realise it's not always the economy versus lives. The economy IS lives.

Anyway, not sticking my flag in the ground on either side, just thinking out loud I guess. Interesting times.

[Eoin McLove]

I think another important question is what to expect from the forthcoming recession. It will be a different experience to the 2008 one, perhaps.  Will it hit harder or will it not be as widespread? Will it be as long lasting? And let's not forget about Brexit which hasn't gone away and is yet to possibly impact the UK and Irish economies.

[Airneanach]

I'm about as qualified an economist as I am an epidemiologist but conventional wisdom would suggest we are in a better position to jump back out of a recession  than we were in 2008-2012, provided these restrictions don't last too long. A lot of the economy is more on hold than completely fucked like it was last time. We are Irish, so we'll encumber ourselves with the usual negative whataboutery, but that's how I choose to read it anyway.

[Snare]

Linerick looking a good possibilty now for the end of August. 

Maybe belongs in the off-topic thread but as raised here, Govt's expectation is that we'll be back to where we were in 2022 in relation to employment levels and growth. And I don't think the herd immunity will work as WHO said you're not protected from getting re-infected.

[Carnage]

I read today that about 2-3% of those who've recovered have developed antibodies. Low figures but it's something to go on at least.

[Juggz]

Herd immunity models generally require a vaccine. The amount of people who have been infected with this is actually a tiny percentage of the population. Without a vaccine, herd immunity will take a long, long time and involve a lot of death. At some point, yes, there needs to be a balance with economic interests but restarting the economy involves opening the borders, ports and airports and we're back to square one in terms of containment. It's not going to be an easy one to get right for any country.

This is worth reading

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055

[Juggz]

Clutch take a shot at Scooter's championship title

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIhWErtLTe8

[Blitzer666]

Herd immunity models generally require a vaccine. The amount of people who have been infected with this is actually a tiny percentage of the population. Without a vaccine, herd immunity will take a long, long time and involve a lot of death. At some point, yes, there needs to be a balance with economic interests but restarting the economy involves opening the borders, ports and airports and we're back to square one in terms of containment. It's not going to be an easy one to get right for any country.

This is worth reading

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055

Did u really attach a BBC link? Their news reports are unbearable

[Juggz]

I went there, brah.

[jobrok1]

Maybe I'm being a bit too literal about it, but is this announcement only aimed at 5000+ events.
It doesn't say anything about events less than 5000 being good to go... yet!

As much as I hate to say it, but it could be like when the restrictions were initially imposed and they are just softening blow of the full long term impact.