Coronavirus

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

What's the vaccination rate among adults in Ireland at now, 90%? More? Case numbers higher than they've been in months. How the fuck will the prevention of unvaccinated people from socializing with the upper class going to change anything, and where is the evidence for it?

Pretty sure the only (admittedly machiavellian) logic behind it is just to shake as many still unvaccinated into getting vaccinated. Since, as you highlighted yourself above, rates of death and ICU admission are still massively skewed towards the unvaccinated, trying to get the last of them done by whatever means possible is the only game in town, outside of lifting all restrictions completely and throwing caution and the medical system to the wind. If you were the health executive right now, looking at figures which, in a nutshell, say you could have 50 ICU beds more free right now merely by the last 5-10% adults getting vaccinated, what kind of action would you encourage the government towards?

[open face surgery]

I may be missing something but how is 60/40 massively skewed towards the unvaccinated?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Because the unvaccinated are a tiny minority of people, ~5-10% of older adults (and it's been that way for months now in Ireland), but nevertheless still make up 40% of the deaths since April. Most of the deaths are still coming from comorbidities and old age, etc., but it's pretty unambiguous that the chances of ending up in ICU and/or dying from COVID are roughly 16 times higher (that's the figure being presented as a global average; the Irish figures go in the same direction) among the unvaccinated.

Think of it this way (totally invented illustration): 100 people, 10 of them heavy smokers. 10 out of the 100 die of lung cancer, 6 non-smokers, 4 heavy smokers. So 6.7% of non smokers but 40% of heavy smokers developed lethal lung cancer. Based on figures like that, would we say smoking is or isn't a lung cancer risk factor?

[Giggles]

But what happens when you factor in underlying conditions?

80% of covid patients in ICU have underlying medical conditions: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/two-most-common-high-risk-25415109

72% of deaths in that death report I posted yesterday had underlying medical conditions.

Average age of deaths is 80.

If you're old and/or have underlying conditions you'd probably want to be getting the injection anyway.

Last I checked, there was not an abundance of 80 year olds hanging out in gyms and nightclubs.

I'd imagine that most people who haven't had the injection don't have underlying conditions (and thus don't feel the need to get it), and are decades away from 80.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

I'd imagine that most people who haven't had the injection don't have underlying conditions (and thus don't feel the need to get it), and are decades away from 80.

Maybe most, but not counting the dead ones and those spending one to two months or more in ICU, right?

I've been against these health pass things since the beginning, I hate being asked for it here; in Paris you're asked for it even if you're just having coffee outside. But, on the other hand, I'm also against people clogging up the medical services primarily because they've swallowed gallons of absolute bullshit online, via WhatsApp, or from wherever. The figures now speak for themselves; for all the bullshit governments have been coming out with, clearly the greater bullshit is coming from those actively dissuading people from getting vaccinated.

[Carnage]

But what happens when you factor in underlying conditions?

80% of covid patients in ICU have underlying medical conditions: https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/two-most-common-high-risk-25415109

72% of deaths in that death report I posted yesterday had underlying medical conditions.

Average age of deaths is 80.

If you're old and/or have underlying conditions you'd probably want to be getting the injection anyway.

Last I checked, there was not an abundance of 80 year olds hanging out in gyms and nightclubs.

I'd imagine that most people who haven't had the injection don't have underlying conditions (and thus don't feel the need to get it), and are decades away from 80.

And bear in mind that those death rates include people dying with Covid as well as those dying from Covid, and given the average age... The numbers are largely irrelevant.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Falling back on the distinction between with and from does nothing to explain why the unvaccinated are statistically over-represented among COVID deaths and hospital admissions. I mean, yeah, unless you arbitrarily decide that the numbers are irrelevant of course.

[Giggles]

But, on the other hand, I'm also against people clogging up the medical services primarily because they've swallowed gallons of absolute bullshit online, via WhatsApp, or from wherever.

That's understandable, but is there any evidence to support the notion that those specific people without the injection wouldn't have ended up in ICU anyway, injections or no?

And what are their ages and underlying conditions and medical history? Imagine if let's say half of the "unvaccinated" currently in ICU are 80+, and for whatever reasons, they are not eligible for the injection. That's not going to produce an accurate portrayal of the "unvaccinated" group at large.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

That's understandable, but is there any evidence to support the notion that those specific people without the injection wouldn't have ended up in ICU anyway, injections or no?

Yes, there is statistical evidence which is replicated in almost every country in the west; if you're not vaccinated, then - all other things being equal - you have a much higher chance of ending up in hospital, in ICU, or dead with/from COVID than if you are vaccinated.

And what are their ages and underlying conditions and medical history? Imagine if let's say half of the "unvaccinated" currently in ICU are 80+, and for whatever reasons, they are not eligible for the injection. That's not going to produce an accurate portrayal of the "unvaccinated" group at large.

There is, on the other hand, no solid evidence to suggest that any significant proportion of the unvaccinated in hospital, in ICU, or dead with/from COVID were unvaccinated due to being ineligible. That is a flight of fancy.

[Giggles]

No there isn't any evidence for my imaginary scenario there, but the point I'm making is that we're being bombarded with numbers every day, and often with no context. We're not being reminded on a daily basis that (currently) 72% of those in ICU have underlying conditions. We're not being reminded that over 4000 of the total 5500 deaths have had underlying conditions.

X amount in ICU are unvaccinated.

Right, but how old are they and what underlying conditions do they already have?

Stats indicate that not having the injection might give you a higher chance of ending up in ICU, but in the majority of young healthy people with no underlying conditions, surely that "higher chance" could equate to absolutely fuck all?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Here:
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-19intensivecareadmissions/COVID-19_ICU_Weekly_Report_02%20Nov_2021_website.pdf

That's an up to date 6 month summary of COVID ICU admissions ( = 400 admissions, including the 90 or so still in there):
60% unvaccinated.
80% with underlying medical conditions.
Over 90% under the age of 75 (just over 25% under the age of 45, i.e. 100 people in the last six months).

Seems kinda clear that vaccination also keeps those with underlying medical conditions out of ICU. And this is what we've been told all along, which is why people with underlying medical conditions were prioritized for vaccination since the beginning, along with the elderly. You can also scroll to the bottom of the document for a summary of admissions info from the previous waves. Seems as time goes on the percentage of younger people being admitted is increasing, which also makes sense since vaccination coverage in the very oldest in Ireland is one of the highest in Europe.

[Giggles]

Seems kinda clear that vaccination also keeps those with underlying medical conditions out of ICU.

I don't understand how you came to this conclusion?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Seems kinda clear that vaccination also keeps those with underlying medical conditions out of ICU.

I don't understand how you came to this conclusion?

Yeah, trying to explain it is a proper head bender and all, so apologies if I'm just confusing the matter even more, but I'll try again.

Making a modest assumption that underlying medical conditions are spread more or less evenly among the vaccinated and unvaccinated...

If vaccination wasn't helping to keep those with underlying medical conditions out of ICU/alive, then we should expect to see a much higher proportion of vaccinated people in ICU, since there is a much higher proportion of vaccinated people in the general adult population. If vaccination status had a negligible impact, compared to underlying medical conditions, on the chances of ending up in ICU then we should expect the proportion of vaccinated vs unvaccinated people in ICU to reflect, give or take, the proportion of vaccinated vs unvaccinated in the general adult population, so 9 to 1 or thereabouts. But this isn't what's seen; the numbers, in Ireland and every other place I've looked at, reflect vaccination contributing strongly to keeping people out of ICU, underlying medical conditions or not, the proportion in Ireland right now being more like 1 to 1, even split.

[Giggles]

I've read your post a few times and I still don't get it. Might just sit this one out 


A lot of mixed messages coming from the government vs reality: https://www.msn.com/en-ie/sport/other/will-ireland-face-more-restrictions-this-christmas-covid-latest-as-micheal-martin-shares-bleak-outlook/ar-AAQHmyq

The reality is that clubs and pubs are open and we're permitted to go (if you're privileged to do so), but at the same time, Big Tony is asking people to work from home and limit social contacts.

"The evidence intentionally is that the booster third dose is quite impactful, more impactful than the second dose, it is being said. Our data from the over 80's already is encouraging in that respect".

I can't help but be incredibly skeptic about that quote. This time last year we were waiting on the vaccine to save us and be the "light out of the tunnel". But oh no wait, they're not good enough now, wait until you get your THIRD shot and then you'll be flying.

The way things are going, Netherlands with their current 7pm curfew and with this wave probably going to be the biggest yet, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to enforce some sort of partial lockdown between now and christmas. They'll do the usual blame the people instead of blaming themselves for the state of the public health sector.

[Giggles]

By any chance was it the video of yer man on spring break talking about vaccines and then boosters and then more boosters?

It was! Lol

Gotta admit, some of his predictions were spot on:

https://twitter.com/ZNeveri/status/1349460356595376133