Coronavirus

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Australia mate, Australia. Answer the question sticking to what is happening and what has happened in Australia, without flitting off to point at the EU or the US or Albania, which are irrelevant to the situation in Australia, since the respective responses of all of them have been totally different.

Australia have only ~15% of the population fully vaccinated. Which is nothing. And the reason it's so slow is not primarily because of resistance to getting vaccinated. So, what use now or at any time in the last 7 months would it have been to implement, in Australia, snap lockdowns as a coercion to get people to get vaccinated...if there were no vaccines available??

So, things happening smoothly in accordance with an overarching plan for global control (which, arguably, has already existed for decades)? Or things more or less ham-fistedly being tried out with lots of crossed interests and human error and random variance getting all messed up?

And ask yourself why you are making a big deal of a 3-day snap lockdown on the other side of the globe now as opposed to when they first started happening months ago? It's the same question that needed asking when a big deal was made of Israel announcing something a week ago that was no more nor less stringent than things they'd already done months ago. Point all over the world, pick out only the events that fit the overarching narrative - regardless of background or context - and amplify them endlessly, so that you have a neverending supply of bricks to build the edifice of doubt. How does what is happening in Australia fit with what is happening anywhere in Europe? It doesn't. The two situations, with respect to type and length of lockdown, travel quarantine, vaccine availability, case rate, mortality rate, etc., couldn't be any more different.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Would love to see a popular revolution triggered by pharmaceutical companies doing what they do best; serving capital over human interests:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-moderna-raises-prices-its-covid-19-vaccines-eu-ft-2021-08-01/

[astfgyl]

Saw that about the price hike. Not surprised in the least.

Re the Australian situation, it's no different to what is happening everywhere else. That's how it relates to everywhere else. All corners of the world are going for the same outcome even if there's differences in how they get there and the basic shit is keep locking down and restrictions until the cavalry comes with the vaccines and passports. And don't even pretend that you think a 3 day lockdown will do anything at all.

What happens if the vaccines don't work? Where's the contingency plan? Can't lock down forever but nobody seems to be considering that, which is so unbelievable that I don't believe it tbh.

Did you read the Lockstep scenario by the way?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

I do think a 3 day lockdown may achieve something. Because they have achieved something all the other times Australia have had recourse to them; they give them a little breathing space in order for identified cases, contacts, and their movements to be geographically localized before even more cases are created. That's why they bring them in as soon as a cluster appears, even small. It's also why they have actually lifted them again after the stated length of time rather than using them as a cover to slip a longer lockdown in the back door (as several of the commenters on the Rebel News post you shared presumed was the case...because they know nothing about the background in Australia...and Rebel News sure as hell ain't gonna correct them on that).

Do you think they're totally pointless and the government know it but are doing it just to be seen to be doing something? Or do you think there is some pointed ulterior motive behind, specifically, this quite particular type of localized snap lockdown? If so, what is that ulterior motive and what are the facts that back it, specifically, up? All I'm seeing is generalizations pointing anywhere but Australia. The fact that Rebel News are highlighting this, the fact that Lawrence Fox highlighted Israel last week, is just people pointing anywhere on the globe that fits, at any given moment, with the narrative they are literally selling, without giving a shit about what the local context is. That is how you keep your subscribers fed and happy. And again, look yourself honestly at how you presented it: "well fuck me, here's the insanity coming for the aussies." Nothing is "coming for the aussies" that they haven't been doing for months. If you're talking about Australia but don't know that, it's because knowing that wouldn't fit the narrative your sources are amplifying!

Australia's response has been very different to other places, both in approaches and results. I don't see what's gained in terms of genuine understanding of what's going on in the world by trying to pretend otherwise.

[astfgyl]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-02/queensland-coronavirus-new-cases-update-lockdown-brisbane-school/100341828 well it's gone up to 8 days now. Some of the quotes in it are baffling, like "We need to lock down really, really hard, the hardest we have ever locked down," from the Queensand CMO. So here's the insanity coming for the Aussies that I was talking about. Lockdowns don't appear to have worked anywhere other than China so far. Remember them all celebrating in April or May 2020 that the epidemic was over?

It's unfortunate for me that I have to find stuff shared by the likes of Laurence Fox tbh. I think he's a contrarian knob. Rebel News the same. Looking at evidence from around the world I honestly haven't a clue why anyone would think a 3 day lockdown would do anything at all when there is an incubation period of anywhere up to 2 weeks for the virus. It's a good point you make about that re ulterior motive (all I can think of is that it's a case of keep doing it until everyone takes the shot and the snap lockdowns do the least economic harm in the meantime) and maybe you're right that it is just to be seen to do something but I haven't got the answer. It's just too confusing.

As I've mentioned, the anti side sicken my hole as much as the super pro side in all of this and I'm trying to become a centrist but it's hard with so many obviously wrong things happening everywhere.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Australia went almost a full year (end of August 2020 to mid-July 2021) with essentially no increase in cases and essentially zero deaths. This was almost exclusively down to their lockdown methods. You can see it on the graph right here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

And if you look at the timeline of their measures, you'll see that since January they have implemented many 3- and 5-day lockdowns, which we must presume were in some way successful since, again, there was no significant increase in cases during that period, up until a couple of weeks ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#January_2021

Looking back at the graph from worldometers, it seems pretty clear that there is something happening now with case increases that hasn't happened there since August last year. Why? How? I don't know. But 36 deaths per million compared to a global average of 544... all part of an elaborate plan? Maybe, but I'm sure all those extra thousands of Australians who didn't die on ventilators are pretty happy about it. And if it's not thanks to lockdowns, then I'm at a loss to find another reason. Unless it's all a charade, of course.

[astfgyl]

Before I tackle this one (and I will), how long do you think before the effects of any lockdown become apparent? Serious question.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

From just a couple of posts ago:

[snap lockdowns] give them a little breathing space in order for identified cases, contacts, and their movements to be geographically localized before even more cases are created. That's why they bring them in as soon as a cluster appears, even small.

In other words, the effects of successfully isolating infected cases and as many of their potential contacts as possible, if there are a small enough number of them to be contained, can become apparent very quickly. If a region has essentially zero cases for a while, and then a couple of cases pop up, in those precise circumstances, a snap lockdown to enable containment can be and has been effective. Not saying it's perfect, or what every country "should" be doing. But it has worked for Australia, proof in the pudding, etc. Up until the last couple of weeks that is.

[astfgyl]

No I'm not being smart about it, I'm going to look at the figures and dates etc and see if indeed I come to form an opinion on it. If it looks like it works I'll freely admit it. I am skeptical but I'm going to go in with an open mind because I personally feel that entrenched positions won't help anything. Perhaps I'll come to the realisation that snap, short lockdowns are the way to mitigate the situation in the short term. I can't think that they are a permanent solution by any sort of logic, but assuming that vaccinating the vulnerable is the solution for severe illness and death in the longer term (I also think that the young healthy folk can take it on the chin, but for the vulnerable it's a good idea), maybe the Aussies are getting it right. 3 days sounds like a joke to me, but a week or 2 here and there maybe. I'll have a good look at it this evening and come back here. Going to concentrate on Queensland though rather than the whole country as there are differences in response in different states.

Isolating the sick has always seemed like a good idea to me as well, but it has gotten out of hand when people are judged to be sick without clinical symptoms. Anyway, I'll have a look.

[astfgyl]

Finding it very tough to get graphs and numbers for Queensland alone. What I will say is that prior to the current shutdown it seems so far like there might be a bit of merit in the snap lockdowns some of the time and not so much at other times for the full country. Not really accurate using numbers for the whole country because who knows which state was doing what at given times. So the jury is out a bit but I can't use any of the figures I've seen to discredit the idea in Australia. Other countries in other parts of the world is easier but I did say I'd stick to Oz so there we go. I'll get back on it though when I have more time. Sounds like a bit of a cop out answer so I'm going to say 1 nil to you at half time.

[astfgyl]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/nycs-de-blasio-mandates-vaccines-for-indoor-activities.html

More passports, and this peach of a quote: "De Blasio said the mandate, known as the Key to NYC Pass, would encourage increased immunizations to combat the spread of the delta coronavirus variant." Can anyone show me anywhere in the world where the vaccine rollout has worked against the Delta variant? Beyond ridiculous.

Now I came across some Irish figures today, from this day last year vs same day this year...

4th August 2020: 5 in ICU, 14 in hospital (that's with a positive test, maybe covid maybe not, but we all know about that lark by now). No vaccine.
4th August 2021: 29 in ICU, 186 in hospital (again, positive tests and not a lot of data beyond that). Almost 6 million doses of vaccine administered so far, some full, some partial.
Mostly the same restrictions except the 9 euro dinner and a few GAA and League of Ireland games. Vaccine passports now in force. It's really going well and crushing that Delta Wave isn't it?

Delta Waves: "In the deepest level of sleep, stage IV sleep, the predominant EEG activity consists of low frequency (1–4 Hz), high-amplitude fluctuations called delta waves, the characteristic slow waves for which this phase of sleep is named....  ....It is most difficult to awaken people from slow-wave sleep; hence it is considered to be the deepest stage of sleep" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK10996/)

[Giggles]

Delta Waves: "In the deepest level of sleep, stage IV sleep, the predominant EEG activity consists of low frequency (1–4 Hz), high-amplitude fluctuations called delta waves, the characteristic slow waves for which this phase of sleep is named....  ....It is most difficult to awaken people from slow-wave sleep; hence it is considered to be the deepest stage of sleep" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK10996/)

4th August 2020: 5 in ICU, 14 in hospital (that's with a positive test, maybe covid maybe not, but we all know about that lark by now). No vaccine.
4th August 2021: 29 in ICU, 186 in hospital (again, positive tests and not a lot of data beyond that). Almost 6 million doses of vaccine administered so far, some full, some partial.
Mostly the same restrictions except the 9 euro dinner and a few GAA and League of Ireland games. Vaccine passports now in force. It's really going well and crushing that Delta Wave isn't it?

Maybe it's a bit unfair to compare last year's strain with this summer's deadly delta mutation. But sure I suppose it's all the young kids fault isn't it, with their partying and whatnot.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Can anyone show me anywhere in the world where the vaccine rollout has worked against the Delta variant?

Depends on what you're demanding of the word "worked" there, doesn't it? It's like, you say that a snap lockdown won't "work", but what you mean is that it's not enough to flatten the curve. No, but they have been effective at previous times for containment. Likewise, is the vaccine "working" to prevent the spread of the delta variant? Maybe not as well as we'd like, but then again the population isn't as vaccinated as we'd like either. But, supposedly most (not all, disclaimer, blah blah) of those dying and/or ending up in hospital with the delta variant are...not vaccinated. So, it's working and it's not working. It's doing what we were told it would do. I mean, you're the very one who was a few months ago on the claims that the vaccination wasn't going to reduce transmission, no? And the reply from the scientific community was, if the whole population is vaccinated transmission should be reduced a bit, but the main aim of the vaccination is to prevent against serious manifestation of the COVID illness. If it's doing that, it's "working", no?

[astfgyl]

The vaccine doesn't reduce transmission. You can see that as well as I can. It definitely doesn't. It does seem to be reducing death and hospitalisation though, but then again if one believes the variant narrative (I don't) as it is presented, you can't also say it is because of the vaccine which is specifically tailored to the spike protein on the alpha variant, so which is it? I'd like to believe that it does work on that level of reducing serious illness and death or else this is all for nothing and then the conspiracy theory side of my brain kicks in, which I'm also skeptical of by the way.

Had a conversation today with a friend (who has actually taken four jabs, 2 sinopharm followed by 2 pfizer with zero side fx, and we have a good skit about it often. I even tried sticking a spoon to the cunt) about the Australian situation and we concluded that if lockdowns were to be used, then the snap Aussie version seems to be the least painful way to do it vs the Irish restrictions-since-January way. I gave you 1 nil at half time on that one did I not? I'm not so full of myself to rule out learning things, although the second half is only kicking off as the Aussie situation is evolving as we speak. They aren't half authoritarian about it though but I'm not ruling out giving you the 2 nil if it goes that way. So yeah, given the existential threat of the delta variant, can you show me anywhere in the world that vaccinations have reduced the transmission rather than increased transmission of it? I can't find any and indeed have coincidental evidence of cases increasing with the vaccination rollout that I can draw up if you like.

Maybe it's a bit unfair to compare last year's strain with this summer's deadly delta mutation. But sure I suppose it's all the young kids fault isn't it, with their partying and whatnot.

And let's not forget about the insanely reduced risk for those in whom the delta wave is most prevalent. Those crazy bastards living their lives in the face of the deadly threat of deep sleep brainwave patterns!

But, supposedly most (not all, disclaimer, blah blah) of those dying and/or ending up in hospital with the delta variant are...not vaccinated. So, it's working and it's not working.

Further to that: https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1423322271503028228 (link from news station in tweet). This is not "told you so", I genuinely mean it when I say I hope the thing works for the vulnerable even if I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole as of now due to the experimental nature of it and the obvious lies that taking it gets us back to normal. I'd like it to work so that the benefits outweigh the risks (then I too, along with my family who I feel a certain sense of responsibility towards, can participate in the fucked up new normal which is at this stage inevitable) and then when it is foisted upon my kids, at least I can say that the reason I didn't stand up and say no is because I thought it would do them some good. It's a fucking hard sell for my gut and the little voice nagging away in the back of my head though. Maybe if they were to offer 30 pieces of silver for each of the kids it might ease my conscience somewhat...

... or maybe kebabs for jabs will be enough to get the kids to beg for it all by themselves, or a ticket to Electric Picnic, or maybe the shitty Feile in Birdhill might do it.. it gets worse the more I think about it and yet it goes full steam ahead.

Show of hands, who here would give this shit to their kids, given the level of risk they face from covid vs the potential risk they face from taking the shot? I've had my own lads off playing with their pals as normal since about May 2020 so it doesn't seem worth it, but this is not an emotional appeal; I'm genuinely curious whether anyone here would give it to their own given the unknowns involved. And for the record everyone in my house has had the full schedule of shots, but not the flu jab and not this shit (the higher the possibility of viral mutation, the less likely that this targeted stuff will actually work to any noticeable degree. And why do we think that the flu shot can't actually even be proven to work even though it has been out for years....? It's a case of "well you didn't get flu so it must have worked", but I smoke cigarettes every day and I also didn't get the flu, so does smoking prevent flu?, of course not. Sick of this hard sell bullshit with no actual provable science to back any of it up.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

you can't also say it is because of the vaccine which is specifically tailored to the spike protein on the alpha variant, so which is it?

This paper is too technical for me to fully get my head around in the time I have right now, but the conclusion in the first two paragraphs of the Discussion section are clear enough. You can scan around the rest of the paper to see basically what they do in it - testing serum from various individuals:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03777-9

a two-dose regimen generated high sero-neutralization levels against the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants in individuals sampled at week 8 to week 16 after vaccination

I don't know if there are any studies that do such a direct ex vivo study using serum samples and find opposite results.