Coronavirus

[Caomhaoin]

My young lad rang me today, he wants to go back to school because he has way more homework than usual and his mother is driving him up the walls. I was just joking with a colleague in the spin into work a few weeks ago that it'd be 'some laugh' if they closed the place down over this Coronavirus yoke... I'd gladly pay a months salary to get back to normal, now. Stuck in the apartment 24/7 with the bird is causing...tension. Exercise, routine, diet have all deteriorated significantly despite best intentions. I'm starting to understand how the long-term unemployed waste away into apathy and time wasting. I have to sort myself out rapid.

My mother (60) is a heavy smoker and has a couple of conditions which make her quite vulnerable. I have a granny still alive who had one foot in the grave at a few points over the last year, very worrying. It's sobering to let your mind wander to worst case scenario direction.

[Blizzard Beast]

Depending on how long this virus lasts and bands are grounded from touring I wonder will there be a surge in new albums released next year?

Nine Inch Nails released 2 albums (or 2 parts of 1 album) for free this morning. Said they had been working on it the last while. As regards other bands, I imagine a lot of them will start working on new material to take their mind off things.

Fair play to them must check that out.
6 weeks minimum lock down in France.

[Eoin McLove]

Strangely positive buzz going out the front door and clapping and hooting with everyone else there.

[astfgyl]

Strangely positive buzz going out the front door and clapping and hooting with everyone else there.

Well in fairness, new NIN is a rare thing!

Joking aside, have I missed some good news?

[Eoin McLove]

There was an 'event' where people were asked to go out and cheer and clap for a minute to show appreciation for the nurses and doctors working on the frontline at the moment (with the unspoken addition of cheering for 'Pretty Hate Machine' and 'The Downward Spiral'). Sounds a bit corny but it was a positive gesture that was welcome amidst the endless misery of the news.

[Snare]

Strangely positive buzz going out the front door and clapping and hooting with everyone else there.

Well in fairness, new NIN is a rare thing!

thanks for that!

[astfgyl]

Ah right, sound. Sure I suppose anything to raise the morale is badly needed. I hadn't heard about it but I was sitting out in my car smoking fags and listening to tunes at the time and I can report that no one around here was doing it. Pity, I'd have joined in.

Speaking of endless news-related misery I was talking to an ould fella the other day and he said he turned off his radio because the constant updates of figures was like an exercise in demoralization. I agree. I stopped it myself last week and my mental health dramatically improved. Not taking a burying my head in the sand attitude, I do hear an odd update but had to stop tracking it case by case.  Cheering on good things in general is probably the way to go, if I can't physically do anything to change the situation.

[astfgyl]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

I have been doing a bit of digging around and I had the idea of looking at certain things. What do any of the more learned among ye think of this?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

I have been doing a bit of digging around and I had the idea of looking at certain things. What do any of the more learned among ye think of this?

They're over 8000 dead now in far less than the length of a single season and with a lockdown that was imposed weeks ago. That figure includes 30 health staff. All we have to do is imagine the figure had no measures been taken and it's easy enough to see that any of those single season figures would be eclipsed. They may yet be even with the lockdown.

[astfgyl]

I'm not doubting the figures at all, or how bad it would be without a lockdown in place over there.

I just noticed that Italy in particular has had an extremely high excess death rate in the years mentioned in that study there, and it seems to be that they have a disproportionate rate this time, too. Just what anyone makes of that. And I see that the study is for ILI, not strictly Influenza. Has this been growing in Italy for a lot longer than we know of? Is this almost the point that the German virologist was making in the video you posted a few pages back? Have to put the disclaimer in that I have no conspiracy or hidden agenda thing I'm trying to get at, just wondering about stuff

From the page: "Highlights

•

    In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.
•

    More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.
•

    Italy showed a higher influenza attributable excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly."

Taking a winter season to be roughly 4 months (might be more, I'm guessing at that), and the study period being 4 seasons, that is 17,000 deaths per season, and 4250 for each month of the season. That is a lot for something that there is a vaccine for. And the study does mention that their vaccination rate for vulnerable groups is low when compared to other countries, but not a massive amount lower.

Should I infer from that then that however bad Italy is, it wouldn't be as bad in the rest of Europe? I wonder what the figures for Spain are for the same thing. I must look them up.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

I dunno. As I said in response to the German video, he doesn't account for the health services response to this; in every country where it has it they are devastated and speak of having never seen anything like it, not just in Italy. Spain will have caught up with them in a few days, France too. We won't have clearer answers for months.

[astfgyl]

Here is another highlight from the study. It seems they have seen something like it: "In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. A mortality rate of 10.7 per 1,000 inhabitants was observed in the winter season 2014/2015 (more than 375,000 deaths in absolute terms), corresponding to an estimated 54,000 excess deaths (+9.1%) as compared to 2014 (Signorelli and Odone, 2016), representing the highest reported mortality rate since the Second World War in Italy (UN, 2019). Although the above-described excess mortality created concern among researchers, health authorities and public health experts, it has been challenging to identify its determinants (Signorelli and Odone, 2016)."

Look, I'm no expert and I had to read some parts of it 2 or 3 times to get the idea of it, but it's certainly clear there has been something else going on in Italy for quite a while, and this current situation is highlighting it. It seems that the year on year increase there is not quite what it seems to be at the moment. Of course the fact that they are locked in to their houses can't be ignored in all of this.

When this situation really started to snowball, I was mostly watching the Diamond Princess to try get a clear picture of how this goes in a situation where the infection kicks off in a closed setting. Looking at it now again after a week of leaving it off, it makes interesting reading. Not forgetting the outcome would be affected by strict quarantining of passengers at an early stage.

The massive difference between the Italian figure and the German one has to have something going on with it as well, even allowing for the discrepancies in reporting methods. Is it a genetic thing? Are people of Mediterranean descent more susceptible to it than those of Germanic descent? Is it something in their diet or levels of physical activity as a nation?

[Bogmetaller]

Here is another highlight from the study. It seems they have seen something like it: "In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. A mortality rate of 10.7 per 1,000 inhabitants was observed in the winter season 2014/2015 (more than 375,000 deaths in absolute terms), corresponding to an estimated 54,000 excess deaths (+9.1%) as compared to 2014 (Signorelli and Odone, 2016), representing the highest reported mortality rate since the Second World War in Italy (UN, 2019). Although the above-described excess mortality created concern among researchers, health authorities and public health experts, it has been challenging to identify its determinants (Signorelli and Odone, 2016)."

Look, I'm no expert and I had to read some parts of it 2 or 3 times to get the idea of it, but it's certainly clear there has been something else going on in Italy for quite a while, and this current situation is highlighting it. It seems that the year on year increase there is not quite what it seems to be at the moment. Of course the fact that they are locked in to their houses can't be ignored in all of this.

When this situation really started to snowball, I was mostly watching the Diamond Princess to try get a clear picture of how this goes in a situation where the infection kicks off in a closed setting. Looking at it now again after a week of leaving it off, it makes interesting reading. Not forgetting the outcome would be affected by strict quarantining of passengers at an early stage.

The massive difference between the Italian figure and the German one has to have something going on with it as well, even allowing for the discrepancies in reporting methods. Is it a genetic thing? Are people of Mediterranean descent more susceptible to it than those of Germanic descent? Is it something in their diet or levels of physical activity as a nation?

Well hasn't it been well documented that Italy has a higher ratio of people who are over 65 in comparison to most countries ? And they have a higher ratio of smokers too.

[kiehozero]

Speaking of endless news-related misery I was talking to an ould fella the other day and he said he turned off his radio because the constant updates of figures was like an exercise in demoralization. I agree. I stopped it myself last week and my mental health dramatically improved. Not taking a burying my head in the sand attitude, I do hear an odd update but had to stop tracking it case by case.  Cheering on good things in general is probably the way to go, if I can't physically do anything to change the situation.

I'd say that is the best option. Everyone has been given the instructions and procedures to follow to help prevent the spread of the virus, just watching the new all day will just force a feeling of powerlessness. Twenty-four hour news pretty much breeds this, it's the feeling of always having to be switched on to a threat and it does nobody's anxiety any good. Check in with the news once a day or less, keep in contact with friends and family and talk about other things and just keep following the advice. I was in a hole with it myself and felt horrific, but I made the same decision as you, focusing on the things that I have within my control.

[astfgyl]

Well hasn't it been well documented that Italy has a higher ratio of people who are over 65 in comparison to most countries ? And they have a higher ratio of smokers too.

Yeah it has to be fair. I was sort of thinking that their astonishingly high figures might have some of what was identified by that study caught up in it. They were at a loss to explain it back then as well, just what exactly was the cause in the massive increase, despite it being well documented about their high number of aged residents. I also have no idea of the answer but it certainly could be as simple as being an age related thing.

Just had another thought there. Could it be the case that this virus originated in Italy and has been increasing year on year there and it is China who were infected due to their textile industry links vs the other way round? As far as I know the test was invented in Wuhan, but that wouldn't necessarily mean the virus originated there. Just a thought