Coronavirus

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Who knows what will happen in Namibia or Palestine or anywhere else over the coming days, weeks or months. I brought up Iran as an example, not because they were having a surge - this could happen anywhere at any time -, but because I found it interesting that this otherwise fiercely independent country should respond to this surge in the same way as most "western" nations have been. That they did, I was suggesting, surely couldn't be the result of following a WHO script, since they're famously not into following scripts of the west. Otherwise, as I've said before, pointing to what's happening here, or here, or there, or over there, at any given point in time and trying to use it to explain a global phenomenon is not the way to understand it all. It's always cherry-picking, when it's at the level of the tree that the pandemic is happening. You just end up chasing your own tail... find a country with low vaccination but also low cases... Palestine! Gotcha! But Palestine had 620 cases yesterday, bringing its 7-day average now up to four times what it was a month ago. Who knows where that might go! There's no point hanging a theory on what is happening in a handful of countries. You have to look at the overwhelming trends, and not forget that there are over 200 nation states involved in this, so even 33 is fuck all, let alone 6.

[astfgyl]

Don't want to look at it? Pandemic me hole the plan was to look at how vaccinations might be affecting case numbers and then to wildly speculate on the reasons behind it. Surely with a sample size of 200 countries we should be able to find some trends and discover things that made a difference and I think we will find that vaccinations won't be one of them. It's exactly how your detailed explanation of the correlation between the axes should work as you described it. Bet we won't find anything positive re anything making a difference; lockdowns, vaccines, you name it and we won't find any pattern by your standards because it's all wing and prayer stuff and the only variable that matters is ideology. And that's the one that's going to fuck us ten times harder than anything the shiting covid could ever do. What is the overwhelming trend you are on about? There isn't one other than a trend of insanely disproportionate responses.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

Trends, like the one you seem to alternate between accepting and not factoring in at all; the massively reduced mortality and hospitalization rate in vaccinated breakthrough cases compared to unvaccinated infections.

Just saw this, haven't read it yet mind: IT readers requested to send in their reasons for not being vaccinated, then addressed by a vaccinologist and an infectious disease specialist:
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/why-we-re-not-getting-the-covid-19-vaccine-irish-times-readers-share-their-reasons-1.4650503

Edit: Having read just the first answer, hmm, although they surely know the science, they really don't know their target audience. I could feel each word being dismissed out of hand by those its message is intended for.

[Giggles]

One of the responses from that article:

"In the history of immunisation, there has never been issues of long-term side effects of any licensed vaccine that have been manufactured and used according to the required regulatory standards."

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly sure that those kids who developed narcolepsy as a direct result from the swine flu vaccine, still have narcolepsy?

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

One of the responses from that article:

"In the history of immunisation, there has never been issues of long-term side effects of any licensed vaccine that have been manufactured and used according to the required regulatory standards."

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly sure that those kids who developed narcolepsy as a direct result from the swine flu vaccine, still have narcolepsy?

Yeah, it's that kind of strong blanket statement that's not going to do much good. When you get into the details of the studies around that swine flu vaccine, Pandemrix, what really comes through is how difficult it is to draw cause and effect results, especially when the thing being vaccinated against can cause increased risk of the same condition(s) the vaccine under investigation is suspected of causing, in this case H1N1 and narcolepsy. But yeah, it's that general way of answering questions that I was getting at/criticizing in my edit-reply to myself above.

[astfgyl]

Trends, like the one you seem to alternate between accepting and not factoring in at all; the massively reduced mortality and hospitalization rate in vaccinated breakthrough cases compared to unvaccinated infections.

Just saw this, haven't read it yet mind: IT readers requested to send in their reasons for not being vaccinated, then addressed by a vaccinologist and an infectious disease specialist:
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/why-we-re-not-getting-the-covid-19-vaccine-irish-times-readers-share-their-reasons-1.4650503

I am indeed swinging between thinking that the vaccines are keeping people out of hospital and not working at all. This part though:

the massively reduced mortality and hospitalization rate in vaccinated breakthrough cases compared to unvaccinated infections.

That is simply not true and has not been proved in any fashion, but I sure would love to see where you are getting that notion from. I guess we would have to go through the winter and see. I like to keep both possibilities in my head so I don't get stuck in the rut of not being able to change my mind. The story might be that the Delta Deep Sleep variant doesn't hurt as much, or it might be that the vaccines killed the alpha variant and now all we are left with is the bould Delta. That doesn't hold up everywhere though and Sweden is still sticking out like a sore thumb with their no more than average rates of vaccination and fuck all deaths for a month (it is summer after all, and amazingly the same thing has happened here!). I thought that science was to be looked at with something approaching an open mind, although I admit to being guilty of the bias at times like everyone else.

And having read that IT article, I can admit that I see it as nothing other than pure propaganda of the worst kind and I you've anticipated that.

Edit: Having read just the first answer, hmm, although they surely know the science, they really don't know their target audience. I could feel each word being dismissed out of hand by those its message is intended for.

Well no surprise when the questions are addressed by a Vaccinologist and an Infectious Diseases Specialist (perhaps the latter of the two can tell me how covid is spread from person to person but I won't hold my breath)! The shoe salesman says I need better shoes and the Barber says I need a haircut and a shave!

Were all of this to be above board, we would have offered the vaccine to the well-defined vulnerable groups, let them make the choice to have it or not, and got on with our lives. The way these vaccines have been manufactured since before they were actually approved with no respect for their efficacy or safety even in the medium term says to me that the plan was always to give it to absolutely everybody regardless of personal inclination or risk profile. The likely reason to me is that governments were promised that this would be the way out as well as the populace, but that's speculation, much like the epidemiological modelling that got us all into this shit in the first place.

I don't think for a minute that the companies producing these products want to harm anyone, but I know in my heart and soul that they couldn't give two shits if a few get fucked up along the way. This isn't about caring about people's health. That young lad in Waterford might attest to that, had he lived. I do appreciate that his story is not one I've personally encountered either though, which brings me to the next bit:

After a year and a half, we should all be able to use the evidence of our eyes and ears and separate that from the news reports of both good and bad and make an honest assessment of the situation. No talking heads, no pro this or anti that, no anything but what we actually see, and I'll tell you honestly I don't see any pandemic and I'd be amazed if anyone else here can honestly say they do. Leaving out the ICU stories and reports of deaths or lack of from around the world, or indeed the yellow signs on the walls and floors everywhere or the constant assault on the senses from governments and media, what do we see? That isn't just aimed at yourself either, that's for everyone to at least ask themselves even if they don't respond to the thread. No comparisons with anything else just the raw question, what do you see?


Everyone I know who tested positive was no worse than regular seasonal illness and if anyone does know any of the nursing home residents who died, I'd say that my own father and grandmother both died from unspecified viral infections in the end, although they had plenty of other serious things wrong with them and there was none of this bollix to go with it; track and trace, testing of close contacts etc. Imagine how it would have went with a similar regime on those occasions and families left out of hospitals/nursing homes, funerals of 10 with no handshakes and whatever else. It would have been ridiculous is what it would have been. It is ridiculous right now.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

This part though:

the massively reduced mortality and hospitalization rate in vaccinated breakthrough cases compared to unvaccinated infections.

That is simply not true and has not been proved in any fashion, but I sure would love to see where you are getting that notion from.

I have seen lots of data going in that direction, and very little, albeit amplified to the high heaven, going in the other direction. NYT published data from 40 states on it the other day. You can take it or bin it, as you see fit:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html
In France, there are ~9 times more ICU admissions in unvaccinated compared to vaccinated patients and around 5 times more deaths. I could multiply these examples...but who has the time!

I don't get why Sweden is sticking out like a sore thumb though...? Their vaccination rate is comparable to the rest of the EU, and again, who knows when things may change from one week to the next. Cases are on the rise there compared to a month ago, so if they have a large vulnerable unvaccinated population (I don't know if they do, no idea how large the vaccine resistant movement is there) then an increase in mortality may follow in a couple of weeks or so. They found a new delta strain there this week, now that you mention it!

I guess being in Ireland doesn't help your perspective, since the Irish response definitely seems to be overkill, given that vaccine resistance is pretty low there, compared to France anyway.

[astfgyl]

NYT? Seriously? I can't wait to do the due diligence on their source.....

While vaccines have done a remarkable job at protecting a vast majority of people from serious illness, the data in the Times analysis generally spanned the period from the start of the vaccination campaign until mid-June or July, before the Delta variant became predominant in the United States.

Read that again. And then again. I haven't even gotten to their source and there they are already telling you themselves that the source data is out of date! Fuckin NYT 

Vaccine resistance?!? Wow I cannot for the life of me think why anyone would want to resist them (source for the French data would be good if you have it as well). Are you seriously suggesting that the response should be tailored to the level of vaccine resistance? Like it's grand to drop the hammer on the French because they won't take their medicine? Fucking authoritarian bullshit is what that is.

Here's the best quote of all from that absolutely bullshit piece of what I wouldn't call journalism but would best describe as creative writing.. this one is fucking spectacular (wait for it):

Data was not available for several states in which the virus has been surging, including Florida and Missouri.

those poor people with their surging infections. An awful pity we have no data for what "surging" means. Ah Jaysus the NYT hass descended into farce it's pure shit and the worst thing is that I used to love it for its seemingly (surely only to me because I didn't know better) unbiased ( ) reporting. Even saying that feels like I feel like when I remember making a mixtape. It's awful.

Here's another beaut from the very next paragraph:

Until recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that fully vaccinated people accounted for less than 3 percent of coronavirus hospitalizations nationwide and less than 1 percent of virus deaths. But last week, the agency noted that those figures did not reflect new data involving the Delta variant and said it was actively working to update them.

It goes on...

Although at least 80 percent of people 65 and older are vaccinated in the United States, surging cases could still present an elevated risk for them. It is possible, epidemiologists said, that seniors and people with compromised immune systems could be particularly vulnerable in a surge, even if they were fully vaccinated, because their bodies might not produce a strong immune response from the vaccine. The Food and Drug Administration is speeding efforts to authorize booster shots for people with weakened immune systems.

In Mississippi — where only about 35 percent of the population is fully vaccinated and where infections and hospitalizations have been surging — vaccinated older people and people with weaker immune systems have been overrepresented among those hospitalized and dying, according to the state health department.

"We're seeing a pretty dramatic spillover effect from the transmission in the community to our more vulnerable parts of our population," Thomas Dobbs, Mississippi's state health officer, said last week, though he emphasized that a higher proportion of breakthroughs did not mean the vaccine had become less effective.

Looks an awful lot to me that it does fuck all for the very cohort it is supposed to protect in Mississippi.

Next:

A need for better data
A lack of comprehensive data, paired with growing concern over the Delta variant, may be helping to drive fears about breakthrough infections.The C.D.C. does not provide data for breakthrough instances at the state or local level, nor does it provide the data over time

This source is beyond funny and are you actually seriously trying to show me something by using it? I'll be back to refute your argument with articles from the Daily Sport..

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/weird-news/gallery/15-best-funniest-most-outrageous-22027193 (Sourced from the Daily Star for extra New York Times points)

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

You do know that the NYT don't generate the data themselves. So, when they say that they don't have data for Florida and Missouri, it may simply be because the quality of the data coming out of those two states can't be fit into the analyses they're doing. Texas, rather than Missouri, is actually the major state that is "twinned" in the media with Florida in terms of surging cases, and Texas is in there. So I think you're reading just a little bit too much into what their explainers mean. Which are explicit and stated right from the start, not in small print or footnoted.

And here again, you're reading waaay too far into something that I've said:

Are you seriously suggesting that the response should be tailored to the level of vaccine resistance? Like it's grand to drop the hammer on the French because they won't take their medicine? Fucking authoritarian bullshit is what that is.

No, I'm not saying that at all. What I'm saying is that since in France we have hundreds and hundreds of thousands more unvaccinated people, including in vulnerable populations, who are refusing to get vaccinated, then the real world risks for people and for the health service are much more pronounced here than they presumably are in Ireland, where despite a few loud voices, vaccine rollout is going very smoothly (from what I hear anyway). And also, apart from the health pass being pretty much mandatory here, with it we have more activities open to us than ye seem to. Actual concerts, for example, like!

Here's a source for the French hospitalization and mortality vaccinated vs unvaccinated data:
https://www.ouest-france.fr/sante/vaccin/covid-19-le-point-en-chiffres-sur-la-proportion-des-patients-non-vaccines-a-l-hopital-31bcca20-fc47-11eb-b859-ec5d9416da74

It's in French, but the graphs pretty much speak for themselves. And the original source of that data is here: https://data.drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/explore/dataset/covid-19-resultats-issus-des-appariements-entre-si-vic-si-dep-et-vac-si/table/?disjunctive.vac_statut&sort=date
But that's a little more difficult to navigate without le lingo.

[astfgyl]

You can't honestly be coming on defending the NYT. Biased as fuck and well you know it. We've been over this with them before about how they present the story vs the data they have. So of course I know the NYT don't generate the data, they just present it in the most biased way possible is all.

Cases are surging they say before going on to say they don't have the data. Seriously. If they don't have it they should fuck up about it. You already know this though even better than I do. The NYT just doesn't cut it anymore. It's even more biased than I am.

I like the look of that France data you sent there so I will fall down that rabbit hole tomorrow because I've only been at it 5 minutes and I have about 20 tabs open already so I can't do it now. On the face of it though it makes a good case that looks hard to refute.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/israel-to-roll-out-covid-19-booster-shots-to-entire-population-1.4651351

I must admit I was surprised to then read the above, given how well it's going in France. Surely the vaccines work the same in Israel as anywhere else?

Going to leave it for Tonight with Prof. Balloux, who seems pretty sane: https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1428466487803752452

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

You can't honestly be coming on defending the NYT. Biased as fuck and well you know it. We've been over this with them before about how they present the story vs the data they have. So of course I know the NYT don't generate the data, they just present it in the most biased way possible is all.

Cases are surging they say before going on to say they don't have the data. Seriously. If they don't have it they should fuck up about it.

That would mean they don't have the data for the analysis that they are doing which requires data from hospitals about vaccination rates, etc. The data that just says cases are surging in Florida and Missouri is easy to find. I'm not defending NYT, I'm defending context.

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1428466487803752452

This I totally agree with. For the moment, so do the WHO though!

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

An Israeli lesson in stats:
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated/

[Kurt Cocaine]

Simple. Let the vaccinated get their booster shots four times a year.
Gotta keep big pharma happy. After all, not all the common savages have taken up on their wonder syrup.

[Black Shepherd Carnage]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-uk-approves-first-of-its-kind-antibody-treatment/

[astfgyl]

An Israeli lesson in stats:
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated/

I've seen a good few of these type analyses over the last couple of months and have seen those figures worsen over time, so I will wait and see. We have already gone from the ~95% claimed efficacy of the trials to that detailed analysis of the Israeli hospital situation placing it at 60%. I think the French figures you posted yesterday look encouraging so far and will similarly try to keep an eye on those as we move through the winter. These analyses do however support my opinion that the whole thing is one massive trial with unknown results. A hypothesis yes, but no real results. It might still work, I'm not too much of an ostrich not to keep that in mind but so far we have seen a 1/3 drop from the claimed efficacy that the vaccines were authorised on. Maybe it will sit at the 66ish% and that wouldn't be a bad result I suppose.

It's no fucking Ronseal, that's for sure!

On a slightly different note, I was told by a pharmacist friend of mine this morning that the training they have received for administering the Pfizer shots (they actually said it applied to both mRNA vaccines, but so far will only be giving the Pfizer one) to the 12-15 year old group is that the risk of heart inflammation is 1 in 16,000 for boys and 1 in 50,000 for girls. They said they will be explaining this to each and every one of the parents and indeed the kids before giving it and also that they are not happy at all with those numbers. That is the second pharmacist that has told me of the 1 in 16,000 for the young lads but I only heard it in passing with the first one and didn't know where they had gotten the figures from, as I would never have considered it to be so high even with all of the sensational reports. This isn't the FB "friend of my third cousin's old schoolmate who was talking to a friend of someone who is friends with a guard somewhere" type of story either, this is the advice that is being given to the vaccinators here in Ireland. I will be curious to see how many of the parents/kids withdraw from the appointment on hearing the news, although I think with the social pressure involved it won't be many. A bad risk/reward ratio though from my perspective although I'm still a bit skeptical about the incidence being so high.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-uk-approves-first-of-its-kind-antibody-treatment/

Hopefully that works. Hopefully it isn't ridiculously expensive into the bargain, but of course it will be.

Simple. Let the vaccinated get their booster shots four times a year.
Gotta keep big pharma happy. After all, not all the common savages have taken up on their wonder syrup.

I think I'd be pretty pissed off, having rolled up my sleeves for the first two shots only to be told there is a third one in the pipeline already. I would also be pretty pissed off at the 3 shots good, 2 shots baaaad situation which is bound to come with it.

Last thing for today: There are about 100 countries who have not initiated a vaccination programme yet. Does anyone know what is happening in any of them?